Political scientists assessed Armenia's prospects in the CSTO after the deprivation of voting rights.
The deprivation of Armenia's voting rights in the CSTO will not automatically lead to its exit from the bloc or "new events" for the South Caucasus, believe Karen Igityan and Dmitry Solonnikov. The CSTO is concerned about Yerevan's cooperation with NATO and may initiate Armenia's exclusion, said Alexey Mukhin and Pavel Danilin.
As reported by "Caucasian Knot", the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) discussed the issue of depriving Armenia of its voting rights on November 11. The members of the CSTO Collective Security Council decided to deprive Armenia of its voting rights and the ability to appoint representatives to responsible positions in this organization, citing two years of non-payment of membership fees by Yerevan.
After Russia's refusal to intervene in the armed conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the fall of 2020, Armenia's confidence in the benefits of participating in the CSTO weakened. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced in February 2024 that Armenia's participation in the CSTO is "frozen"; in December 2024, he ruled out Armenia's return to the CSTO. The point of no return in the relations between the CSTO and Armenia has been passed, and the country does not consider itself a participant in the bloc and excludes the possibility of returning there, the politician stated. Information on the steps Armenia has taken in search of alternatives to the CSTO can be found in the "Caucasian Knot" reference "Main points on Armenia's criticism of the CSTO and the Kremlin".
The decision of the CSTO Collective Security Council only formalized the course chosen by Yerevan in its relations with the organization, believes political scientist and lecturer at the Russian-Armenian University in Yerevan Karen Igityan. He explained that the "purely formal nature" of Armenia's membership in the union has now received procedural formalization.
The decision will not automatically lead to Armenia's exit from the CSTO, but it will not be able to influence the organization's agenda and decisions made. According to Igityan, Yerevan is not currently interested in a final exit from the bloc, which formally retains "collective defense guarantees under the basic treaty" for Armenia.
Pashinyan avoids responsibility for the final decision
"Pashinyan does not want to take responsibility for the exit [from the CSTO] until he receives firm security guarantees from the West, which he currently does not have. For Pashinyan, it is more advantageous to remain in a 'suspended state' and blame the CSTO for inaction than to officially exit and bear full responsibility if hostilities with Azerbaijan resume," quotes the political scientist “Lenta.Ru”.
According to Igityan, the CSTO is also not interested in a complete break in relations with Armenia. "Excluding Armenia would be a gift to the West, which openly declares its intention to oust Russia from the region," he stated, calling the most realistic choice today the continued retention of Armenia in the CSTO in a "frozen" status.
After the deprivation of voting rights in the CSTO, Armenia must determine its further position regarding the bloc and make a choice, believes Armenian political scientist and research fellow at the Caucasus Institute in Yerevan Grant Mikaelyan.
He reminded that Armenia has not actually participated in the bloc's votes since 2023, when Yerevan recalled its representative from the CSTO. The choice, according to the political scientist, includes two options. "The Armenian leadership can either officially announce its exit from the CSTO or state that the restriction of voting rights is not of fundamental importance for Yerevan, since the republic has practically not participated in decision-making before," News.ru quotes Mikaelyan.
Russian political scientist and director of the Institute for Modern State Development Dmitry Solonnikov stated that the deprivation of Armenia's voting rights in the organization does not signify a fundamental change in Russia's policy in the South Caucasus and will not lead to "any new events for the region".
Solonnikov noted that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is not taking any legal actions to sever ties with the bloc, not wanting to "take responsibility for resolving this issue." "It may be more advantageous for Pashinyan if the final decision on limiting the status or excluding Armenia is made by the CSTO partners themselves. Then what is happening inside the country can be presented as an unfriendly step by Russia and other states of the union," the publication quotes him.
Russian political scientists on the possibility of Armenia's exclusion from the CSTO
The CSTO's decision to limit Armenia's rights in the organization is "quite understandable," as membership in the bloc allows Yerevan to receive closed information about its "internal affairs" while cooperating with NATO, believes political scientist and general director of the Political Information Center Alexey Mukhin.
"Such duality cannot but confuse Moscow and other treaty participants. It turns out that the Armenian authorities, having access to all closed documents, are literally flirting with the North Atlantic Alliance. It is impossible to sit on two chairs in such a situation," the newspaper "Vzglyad" quotes his comment. Mukhin believes that in the future, Yerevan "will have to either return to full-fledged work in the organization or leave its ranks."
Complete exclusion of Armenia from the CSTO is possible as early as the beginning of 2027, also citing years of non-payment of fees, believes political scientist and director of the Political Analysis Center and associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Pavel Danilin.
"This is the first step before Armenia's exclusion from the CSTO, which may follow as early as the beginning of next year. Russia, Belarus, and other participants could not immediately make such a decision without prior deprivation of voting rights," the Russian publication "Abzac" quotes him.