EAEU countries predict an economic decline for Armenia if its membership is suspended.

Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan may temporarily suspend the agreement on the Eurasian Economic Union concerning Armenia. This will restore customs control, and the country's GDP is projected to decrease by 15.6%.

As reported by "Caucasian Knot", Putin has repeatedly demanded that Armenia decide on its participation in the EU or EAEU, as well as hold a referendum on this issue. The referendum on Armenia's accession to the EU will take place after the corresponding application is submitted and a roadmap is formed, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan reported at the end of August. In early September, when Putin again urged the Armenian Prime Minister to decide as soon as possible on Armenia's accession to the EU, Pashinyan stated that the appropriate moment for this has not yet arrived.

A report on the consequences of suspending the EAEU agreement for Armenia has been prepared at the request of the presidents of the four countries. The decision to prepare the report is enshrined in a joint statement signed in Astana on May 29, 2026. The document is to be presented at the meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council in December 2026. The full text of the report has been published on the website of the Russian government.

The reason cited is Armenia's decision to begin the process of joining the European Union; the law on this was adopted by the country's parliament on March 26, 2025. According to the authors of the report, the implementation of European norms in customs, technical regulation, and sanitary control creates risks for the single market and contradicts Article 3 of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) agreement. It obliges states to refrain from measures that could jeopardize its objectives.

The agreement does not provide for one member to suspend its action for another, the report notes. However, citing the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties of 1969, the authors indicate that the other four countries have the right to make such a decision jointly. It may remain in effect until a referendum in Armenia on maintaining membership in the EAEU or joining the European Union.

What will change for Armenia

According to the report, in the event of suspension, the legal regime that depends on the status of a union member will cease to apply to Armenia and its citizens. Among the consequences, the authors mention:

– customs regime: mandatory declaration and control of goods in both directions will return, as well as the payment of duties, as in trade with third countries;

– technical regulation: EAEU countries will stop recognizing the accreditation of Armenian conformity assessment bodies, and their documents and certificates will have to be issued in other union states;

– veterinary and phytosanitary control: products from Armenia will be checked as if imported from a third country, and all agricultural product suppliers will have to be re-certified;

– labor migration: Armenian workers will need patents or work permits, quotas will apply to them, and medical assistance and social insurance under the EAEU agreement will cease;

– transport: unauthorized road transport will be canceled, and tariffs for railway freight transport will increase;

– public procurement: Armenian goods and services will lose national treatment in tenders in other union countries;

– taxes: goods and incomes of Armenian workers will be taxed according to the rules for third countries;

– foreign trade: agreements on free trade with Iran, Vietnam, Serbia, Mongolia, and the United Arab Emirates will cease to apply to Armenia.

Armenia's participation in the common gas market of the EAEU will also cease. According to the authors' estimates, this may affect bilateral cooperation in energy. Officials and members of the Collegium from Armenia will also cease to work in the Eurasian Economic Commission.

Forecast of losses

In 2025, Armenia's trade turnover with EAEU countries amounted to $7.99 billion. Exports reached $3.17 billion, imports – $4.82 billion.

According to the authors' forecast, in the event of membership suspension, Armenia's trade turnover with the union will decrease by more than 55%, which in real terms may amount to approximately $4.44 billion. Exports will fall by more than 65%, imports will almost halve. The turnover of services will decrease by 37.7%. Money transfers from EAEU countries to Armenia will decrease by more than half.

The country's GDP is expected to fall by approximately 15.6%, inflation will rise by 14.9%, and consumption will decrease by 14.6%.

For the other union members, the effect, as indicated in the report, will be negligible: the direct decrease in exports and imports will be less than 1%. For Russia, it is estimated at 0.54% and 0.65%, for Belarus – 0.08% and 0.26%, for Kazakhstan – 0.01% and 0.07%, for Kyrgyzstan – 0.008% and 0.057%, respectively.

Yerevan's position

The report notes that the Armenian leadership recognizes the impossibility of simultaneous membership in the EAEU and the European Union. At the same time, Yerevan intends to remain in the EAEU as long as possible. As an example, the words of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan from January 14, 2026, are cited. “As long as compatibility is possible, we will remain a member of the EAEU. When compatibility becomes impossible, we, together with the citizens of Armenia, will make a decision based on the free expression of the will of the people of the Republic of Armenia,” he said.

On August 24, 2026, Pashinyan stated in parliament that the country's leadership would likely soon begin the process of submitting an official application for EU membership. The referendum, he said, will take place after the EU's response and the emergence of a roadmap, as indicated in the report.

The four countries, as stated in the document, “are not interested in Armenia's exit” from the EAEU. The joint statement of the presidents also states that they share the position on the need to hold a referendum in Armenia on joining the EU or further staying in the EAEU as soon as possible.

“Caucasian Knot” also reported that since October 10, the EU has granted trade preferences for about 80% of exports from Armenia for two years. The decision is related to the restrictions imposed by Russia on the import of Armenian products. The EU is Armenia's third-largest trading partner: it accounted for 11.3% of its foreign trade in 2025, as reported on the European Commission's website.