Analysts assessed the prospects for opening the Armenian-Turkish border.

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Despite statements about the opening of the border between Armenia and Turkey, the prospects for normalizing relations between the two countries primarily depend on the political conditions of Ankara and Baku, while economic benefits for Yerevan are not guaranteed, analysts said.

As reported by "Caucasian Knot", on October 6, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that the opening of the border with Turkey and railway communication with Azerbaijan is expected in the near future. Earlier, Armenian political scientists pointed out that the prospect of opening the border with Turkey became part of the election campaign of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and sparked debates in society.

The Minister of Territorial Administration and Infrastructure Davit Khudatyan wrote on his social media page that he "received a Turkish delegation headed by the chairman of the board and the general director of the Turkish Electricity Transmission Corporation, Pustu, where they discussed the work being done within the framework of the normalization process of Armenian-Turkish relations regarding the restoration and launch of the Gyumri–Kars power line." "During the meeting, the importance of the interconnection of the electricity systems of Armenia and Turkey was emphasized in the context of both bilateral and regional cooperation," he added.

The minister also wrote that "on October 8, 2026, a technical meeting of representatives of the relevant structures of the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan took place in the city of Goris (Armenia), dedicated to the issues of placing power lines within the TRIPP project." Khudatyan clarified that "technical issues related to the placement of power lines were discussed, and opinions on relevant aspects of this direction and the advancement of work were exchanged."

Earlier, on September 23, at the forum "Defining the Architecture of Change," the chairman of the permanent commission of the National Assembly of Armenia on foreign relations Sargis Handanyan told reporters that "we see no obstacles to the full normalization of relations between Armenia and Turkey," and added that "the Armenian side continues to believe in the possibility of normalizing relations and working in this direction."

Many conditions must be met for the normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia

On October 10, political scientist Manvel Sargsyan, political observer Siranush Garayan, expert of the analytical center "Enaket" Shiraz Khachatryan, and economist, lawyer Suren Parsyan commented on the information about the expected opening of the border with Turkey to the correspondent of "Caucasian Knot".

"The normalization of relations with Turkey has been considered a strategic problem for the Republic of Armenia since its declaration against the backdrop of the collapse of the USSR in 1991," said Manvel Sargsyan.

"The first authorities of Armenia, who came to power against the backdrop of the Karabakh movement, found themselves in a false situation, as they had to simultaneously defend the security of Nagorno-Karabakh and pursue a course to normalize relations with Turkey. Turkey itself, although it recognized Armenia's independence, quickly set its conditions for normalizing relations and establishing diplomatic relations. One such condition was Turkey's demand to normalize relations with Azerbaijan. It is clear that in the context of the war that began between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the parties could not reach an agreement. In 1992, Turkey closed its border with Armenia, constantly putting forward various demands for its opening. The closed border between the countries became a symbol of the unresolved problems between Armenia and Turkey," noted Sargsyan.

According to him, "the situation was complicated by the fact that Turkey all this time continued to deny the fact of the Armenian Genocide in the Ottoman Empire." "Even the course of the first authorities of Armenia, who removed the issue of international recognition of the genocide from the country's foreign policy course, did not affect Turkey's position. Even being a member of the OSCE Minsk Group and recognizing the existence of the problem of determining the future status of Nagorno-Karabakh, Turkey has always demanded that Armenia resolve this problem in accordance with Azerbaijan's requirements," noted the political scientist.

Sargsyan noted that "it seemed that the results of the second Karabakh war in 2020, as a result of which the very subject of the dispute - Nagorno-Karabakh, was physically eliminated, should have changed Turkey's attitude towards Armenia." "But the years following the war showed that Turkey does not abandon its main condition - relations with Armenia can only be normalized after the normalization of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan on the latter's terms. The main such condition at present has become the issue of ensuring Azerbaijan an unobstructed corridor through Syunik to Nakhchivan. Despite the fact that direct negotiations between Turkey and Armenia on the issue of opening borders have been ongoing for years, there are no real results yet. And again, the Turkish authorities constantly emphasize that Armenia must first normalize its relations with Azerbaijan. And Azerbaijan constantly puts forward new conditions for signing a peace treaty. And no matter how much the Armenian leadership strives to please Azerbaijan, the atmosphere in the negotiations does not change," noted Sargsyan.

He noted that "in Armenia itself, many experts believe that Turkey's motives are much more complex than what its authorities declare." "The problem of the Armenian-Turkish border is historically linked to Turkish-Russian relations. And it is unlikely that only direct relations between Armenia and Turkey can find a change in the regime at this border. This also applies to the TRIPP issue, where Russia has its own irreconcilable position on the control regime over this section of the planned communications. The position of Iran, which has returned to the Caucasian region, is also not simple, as its relations with many countries in the region remain complicated. And considering the radical changes in international relations, where international rules have significantly narrowed their influence, making forecasts about the prospects for opening the Armenian-Turkish border is a difficult task," said Manvel Sargsyan.

According to Siranush Garayan, the opening of borders with Turkey and Azerbaijan primarily depends on the political will of these countries. With the appropriate decisions, transport communication through Nakhchivan could be restored in a relatively short time.

The implementation of such routes is impossible without the opening of the Armenian-Azerbaijani and Armenian-Turkish borders.

In her assessment, Armenia is interested in creating a route that would allow transporting goods from Central Asia through Nakhchivan and Gyumri to Turkey. This would expand Armenia's transit opportunities and facilitate access to the markets of Iran, the Middle East, and Europe. "However, the implementation of such routes is impossible without the opening of the Armenian-Azerbaijani and Armenian-Turkish borders. Linking the opening of borders with changes to the Constitution of Armenia may prolong the process and allow Baku to place the responsibility for the lack of progress on Yerevan," said Garayan.

The observer noted that "meanwhile, Turkey is developing an alternative railway route towards Nakhchivan, and if transport projects are implemented bypassing Armenia, the country risks missing opportunities for transit development and expanding economic ties."

Turkey seeks to strengthen its position in the South Caucasus

Shiraz Khachatryan believes that "the restoration of the Kars - Gyumri railway can change the regional balance of power, strengthen Turkey's influence, and weaken Georgia's transit positions," and that "the railway project has primarily geopolitical significance."

The activation of the Kars - Gyumri direction may reduce the significance of the Baku - Tbilisi - Kars railway and affect Georgia's transit role, which could potentially cause tension in Armenian-Georgian relations.

The expert believes that "Turkey seeks to strengthen its position in the South Caucasus and expand control over regional transport routes," while noting that "the opening of new communications does not necessarily lead to an increase in Armenia's independence: the country may find itself in conditions of new economic and political dependencies."

Turkey's plans to have a railway in Nakhchivan to ensure direct communication with Azerbaijan bypassing Armenia could push Armenia out of regional logistics routes.

"Turkey's plans to have a railway in Nakhchivan to ensure direct communication with Azerbaijan bypassing Armenia could push Armenia out of regional logistics routes, and to gain real benefits from unblocking communications, clear political guarantees, security mechanisms, and real control of Armenia over its own transport infrastructure are necessary," he added.

The opening of the Armenian-Turkish border will not automatically lead to an increase in Armenian exports and will not ensure access to the Turkish market, said Suren Parsyan, commenting on the possible economic consequences of normalizing relations between the two countries.

According to the expert, Turkish goods are already entering Armenia, while Armenian producers face difficulties in entering the Turkish market. This is hindered by Ankara's customs policy, the high competitiveness of Turkish products, and state support for local producers. Therefore, expectations of a sharp increase in exports and Armenia's GDP after the opening of the border, according to Parsyan, are not sufficiently grounded.

In recent years, imports of Turkish goods to Armenia amounted to about $150–170 million per year, while in 2019 this figure reached approximately $260 million. The economist warns that after the opening of the border, competition may intensify, especially in agriculture, as Armenian producers will find it difficult to compete with Turkish companies on prices and production scales.

At the same time, the opening of the border could provide Armenia with an alternative transport route, reduce dependence on Georgia's tariff policy, and expand opportunities for regional trade. However, significant growth in railway transit, according to Parsyan, is possible with the opening not only of the Kars - Gyumri line but also of transport communication through Nakhchivan.

The economist advocates for the opening of the border but believes it is necessary to prepare the economy, customs system, and local business for new competitive conditions in advance. In his opinion, the closed border has harmed Armenia, including limiting investment opportunities and the country's participation in large regional projects. At the same time, transport communications should be opened comprehensively, taking into account Armenia's economic interests and security issues.

In October 2009, Armenia and Turkey signed protocols in Zurich on establishing diplomatic relations, which included the opening of a common border, but they were not ratified, and in 2018 Yerevan announced their annulment. A new normalization process began in late 2021 - early 2022 with the appointment of special representatives from both countries and negotiations between them.

In June 2023, Pashinyan flew to Ankara to attend the inauguration ceremony of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. He became the first leader of Armenia in 15 years to visit Turkey. Yerevan is primarily interested in economic cooperation with Turkey, while Ankara seeks to obtain recognition of the Kars Treaty from Yerevan and secure the territories ceded to Turkey by it, Armenian political scientists and Turkologists surveyed by the "Caucasian Knot" indicated. On July 30, a meeting of Armenian and Turkish special representatives on the normalization of relations took place at the border of the two countries, but political scientists assessed the agreements reached as insignificant and doubted the quick improvement of relations. They noted that the opening of borders and the establishment of relations between Armenia and Turkey is linked by Ankara to Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiations.