More than a third of survey participants in Armenia named the Russian base a guarantee of security.

39.7% of participants in the Gallup telephone survey in Armenia linked the presence of the Russian military base to the country's security. The survey was conducted against the backdrop of an ongoing public discussion between Yerevan and Moscow about the future of the 102nd base.

As reported by "Caucasian Knot", if Russia decides to withdraw the 102nd military base, Armenia will not object, as its presence is not vital, said Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, commenting on Russian President Vladimir Putin's words that Russia is ready to leave the Armenian Gyumri if Yerevan believes that the Russian military base is not needed there. Armenia may increase the fee for the base's presence in Gyumri if Russian gas prices rise, said the head of the parliamentary commission on defense and security, Vilen Gabrielyan, on September 13.

39.7% of participants in the telephone survey considered the presence of the 102nd Russian military base in Armenia necessary for Armenia's security, said the head of the Armenian representation of the Gallup International Association, Aram Navasardyan, presenting the research results at a press conference on September 25.

According to Navasardyan, 24.7% of respondents believe that the base should remain in Armenia, but the conditions of its stay need to be reviewed. 28.9% of those surveyed expressed support for the withdrawal of the base, while another 6.8% found it difficult to answer, reports "News-Armenia".

The telephone survey was conducted from September 22 to 24, with 1001 people participating. Participants were reminded that after the meeting between Putin and Nikol Pashinyan on September 1, the Russian president stated the possibility of withdrawing the 102nd base from Armenia "if Yerevan wishes. Respondents were asked which of the proposed options, in their opinion, best corresponds to the interests of Armenia and its people. The survey was conducted by the company "MPG", a full member of the Gallup International Association in Armenia, notes Aysor.am.

The Russian state news agency, publishing the results of the same survey, presented its data in its own interpretation. By adding the 39.7% of respondents who associate the base with the country's security to the 24.7% who advocate for a review of its placement conditions, TASS reported that "more than half of the residents of Armenia support the retention of the 102nd Russian military base on the territory of the country."

Arguments about the role of the military base in Gyumri

The chairman of the parliamentary commission on defense and security, a deputy from the "Civil Contract" faction, Vilen Gabrielyan, believes that the 102nd base has not fulfilled the mission for which it was placed in the country, in particular, it did not protect its territory from attacks in 2021-2022. According to Gabrielyan, the withdrawal of the base will not negatively affect Armenia's security.

Pro-government Russian politicians and part of the Armenian opposition, on the contrary, pointed to the risks of withdrawing the base. Active State Advisor of the Russian Federation Andrey Klintsevich called Pashinyan's statements a course towards "dismantling Armenia's own security system".

Deputy from the "Strong Armenia" faction Aik Farmanyan estimated the potential loss of jobs from the closure of the base at 15,000, taking into account related employment in the Shirak region, where the poverty level exceeds 40%. Former deputy Tigran Abrahamyan raised the question of who will guard the Armenian-Turkish and Armenian-Iranian borders after the departure of Russian border guards.

The base's leadership attempted to influence the election results in Armenia

Questions about the role of the base became relevant before the parliamentary elections held in Armenia on June 7. Soon after the start of the election campaign, human rights organizations "Union of Informed Citizens" and the Vanadzor office of the Helsinki Civil Assembly reported that the base was used to exert pressure on the electoral process: Armenian citizens working at the 102nd base were coerced to vote against Pashinyan's party under the threat of dismissal. According to human rights defenders, the base's command demanded that this pressure be extended to family members and acquaintances.

A correspondent from "Caucasian Knot" interviewed base employees and residents of Gyumri to verify this information. A civilian employee of the base, Khoren Gevorgyan, who works in the cafeteria, said that he was "recommended not to vote for Pashinyan" through "various conversations, advice, examples" because he "does a lot against Russia." A driver in the base's structure, Armen Movsisyan, confirmed that support for Pashinyan "is not welcomed," and those who go against the general line, according to him, risk losing their jobs.

Business owners oriented towards military personnel, particularly a fitness club where servicemen train, also stated their intention to vote against Pashinyan, explaining this by their direct economic dependence on military clients. Economist Samvel Markosyan estimated that the base provides jobs for at least 500 civilian employees with salaries above the national average, and also supports dozens of local businesses – from grocery stores to beauty salons. Political scientist Arutyun Mkrtchyan believed that the revealed pressure on voters should have prompted an investigation by Armenian law enforcement agencies.

The 102nd Russian military base has been stationed in Gyumri since 1995 based on an intergovernmental agreement between Armenia and Russia. The base is on combat duty as part of the Unified Air Defense System of the CIS and is the only Russian military base in the South Caucasus. It consists of two garrisons located in the Gyumri area and around Yerevan.

In 2010, the parties extended the agreement's validity until 2044 with the possibility of automatic renewal for subsequent five-year periods. The base is equipped with S-300 complexes, and its personnel numbers about 5,000 people. "Caucasian Knot" has prepared a reference on "the 102nd Russian military base".