Political scientists pointed to inflated turnout and falsifications in the elections in the Astrakhan region.
The increase in official voter turnout in the Astrakhan region compared to the 2021 elections is associated with falsifications and administrative coercion, believe political scientists Mikhail Dolieyev* and Denis Leven. They also questioned the reliability of the official voting results.
As reported by "Caucasian Knot", on September 20, some voters in Astrakhan participated in the action "Noon for a Peaceful Russia", but the number of participants who came to the polling stations was small. Participants in the action reported that they were particularly concerned about the possible mobilization after the elections.
On September 16, analysts noted that the dissatisfaction of residents of the Astrakhan region with the fuel crisis and housing and communal services (HCS) is unlikely to be noticeably reflected in the elections. On September 19, residents of Astrakhan named fuel shortages, declining incomes, and rising prices among the main problems, but skeptically assessed the prospects for protest voting.
Political scientist Mikhail Dolieyev* noted that voter turnout in the Astrakhan region was significantly higher than five years ago. He linked this to the absence of a significant number of independent observers at the polling stations who could conduct their own turnout counts. According to the political scientist, the chairpersons of the precinct electoral commissions (PECs) gradually inflated the data.
"The turnout figures from observers always differed from those reported by the chairpersons of the PECs. Usually, at the beginning, the difference was 4-5 voters <...>, then 40-50 voters," Dolieyev* told a correspondent of "Caucasian Knot".
Then, he said, the difference could reach 200-400 voters. "As is known, turnout is inflated to account for this number of ballots for the ruling party," the political scientist stated.
Many activists left the country and could not become observers, while the remaining ones were "demoralized by the development of the repressive apparatus," Dolieyev* noted.
He explained the increase in turnout by falsifications at the polling stations. To support his assessment, he referred to calculations using the method of electoral analyst Sergey Shpilkin*, pointing to a connection between high turnout and the high result of "United Russia".
According to Dolieyev*, when inflating the ruling party's result, votes can be added not only due to artificially increased turnout but also due to votes for other parties and invalid ballots. He stated that he does not trust the official election results, as the voting took place without independent observation, and reports of falsifications were received from various regions of the country over several days.
Dolieyev* also stated that, according to the calculations he referred to, the result of "United Russia" is inflated by 1.7 times. He said that these calculations "substantially proved total falsifications" in Russia. In addition, the political scientist pointed to the exclusion of candidates who opposed the military operation in Ukraine.
Political scientist Denis Leven drew attention to the increase in turnout in the elections to the Duma of the Astrakhan region from 42.5% in 2021 to 55.8% in 2026. He linked the increase to "broader and more sophisticated practices of administrative coercion," as well as to "falsification" during remote voting.
"The increase is explained by the regional elite's desire to meet the key performance indicators (KPI) set at the beginning of the year by the presidential administration – 55/55. As always, they 'overdid it'. There is, of course, no real increase in the popularity of 'United Russia' – the increase was ensured solely by illegal practices," Leven told a correspondent of "Caucasian Knot".
In Leven's opinion, it was important for the authorities to weaken the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF) as the least controlled systemic party. He believes that part of the communists' result was redistributed in favor of "United Russia" and "New People". According to his assessment, "Fair Russia" was less in demand among regional elites in these elections, and the party faced the question of whether it could even overcome the electoral threshold.
"The results for the parties – zero trust, everything is falsified," Leven summarized.
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