Analysts doubted the ability of the protest potential to influence the election results in Kuban.

Protest sentiments in Kuban may manifest primarily in the refusal of some dissatisfied residents to participate in voting, rather than in an increase in support for opposition parties. This is facilitated by distrust in the elections and the weakness of party structures, analysts interviewed by "Caucasian Knot" noted.

As reported by "Caucasian Knot", on September 11, the Krasnodar Regional Court canceled the registration of Vladimir Atamanchuk as a candidate for the State Duma in the Southern single-member district No. 54. The basis was an election campaign material that the plaintiff considered extremist.

The removal of Atamanchuk intensified the disappointment of Kuban voters in the elections

A resident of Krasnodar Veronika stated that she would not be able to vote in the upcoming elections as she is away, but added that she sees no point in participating in the voting. "I see no point in voting," she told a correspondent of "Caucasian Knot".

More than elections, Veronika is concerned about the state of agriculture and the start of the winter sowing in the region. According to her, the sowing is lagging behind schedule, and the current agricultural year has been very difficult. "We won't eat the deputies, but the sowing determines what we will eat," she sarcastically remarked.

Veronika described the public mood with the word "hopelessness". In her opinion, the reasons for this state differ among various social groups, but people in general have stopped expecting improvements in their lives.

There is no one to vote for.

The leader of one of the public organizations in Sochi Natalya initially planned to participate in the elections after the registration of Vladimir Atamanchuk from "Yabloko" in the Southern single-member district. "I decided right away: I will go to the elections to vote for him. His pacifist position is principled for me," she told a correspondent of "Caucasian Knot".

After the cancellation of Atamanchuk's registration, Natalya decided not to participate in the voting.

Vladimir Atamanchuk himself also stated that after the cancellation of his registration, he does not intend to participate in the voting, as, according to him, "there is no one to vote for." After his candidacy was removed, some voters who intended to support him "morally fell in spirit" and began to say that they would not go to the polling stations, he claims.

Atamanchuk also linked the political passivity of some residents to economic difficulties. According to him, people are busy looking for means to live and raising children, while young people fear mobilization. He believes that in the current political system, other parties will not be able to transform protest sentiments into an increase in Kuban's representation in the State Duma.

Atamanchuk associated the pressure during the election campaign with his personal experience.

"As you know, I faced not only pressure in court but also from the police, who detained me for no reason, for my campaigning, which is permitted by law. And I personally experienced this lawlessness. I do everything possible to change the lives of voters and mine too, but what comes of it, you also know: I have sat, swept the street, and paid fines. Thank you for still being alive," he told a correspondent of "Caucasian Knot".

Some voters stated their intention to spoil their ballots in protest

An activist from Novorossiysk Tatyana stated that she plans to come to the polling station on the last day of voting in black clothing and spoil her ballot. She explained her decision by the absence of candidates with a pacifist position close to her.

People are concerned about finding gasoline and the problem of shelters from drones.

According to Tatyana's observations, the people around her are primarily concerned with everyday problems. "Ordinary people around me understand nothing, they are worried about finding gasoline, food, shelters from drone attacks, living in fear and a depressed state," she told a correspondent of "Caucasian Knot".

Some residents support the authorities' policies, while others oppose them, but openly speaking about this, in Tatyana's opinion, is dangerous.

Retiree Svetlana from Lazarevskoye stated that she does not intend to vote, as she does not trust either the candidates or the parties. One of the reasons for her attitude towards political forces was the housing issue. According to her, she worked her whole life in the resort sector of the defense ministry, received housing, but later lost it at the request of the same ministry and its new leadership.

"They turned me and my family into homeless people," Svetlana told a correspondent of "Caucasian Knot", linking what happened to the political forces she had previously trusted.

Housewife Nadezhda from Krasnodar also does not plan to go to the elections. "I am disappointed and do not trust anyone. Everything is very bad," she told a correspondent of "Caucasian Knot".

According to Nadezhda, many of her neighbors share a similar opinion but are afraid to openly express their attitude towards what is happening. She believes that the residents of the house have started to live worse. The neighbors' attitude towards the SVO remains heterogeneous: most, in her assessment, support her, although many are tired of what is happening.

Entrepreneur Maria from the suburbs of Krasnodar also stated that she intends to come to the polling station on September 20 and spoil her ballot. According to her, she does not believe that she can influence the result this way, but wants to see how many people hold a similar position.

Many residents are tired of the SVO for various reasons, including economic ones and due to a lack of a sense of security during drone attacks, but are afraid to speak about it publicly, Maria believes. She also claims that some budget employees vote under pressure from their employers. According to her, she, like other entrepreneurs, was pressured to vote early, but she refused, citing family circumstances.

A teacher from Sochi Elena also reported pressure on budget employees. "Everyone is being forced to vote. I said I wouldn't go. I am a free person," she told a correspondent of "Caucasian Knot".

Elena stated that she would not vote for "United Russia", as she sees no positive results of the party's work for herself and her children. According to her, some budget employees go to the polling stations, fearing consequences for their work and not knowing how to protect their rights.

Entrepreneur in the real estate sector from Krasnodar Ilya described a specific case of coercion to participate in voting. According to him, representatives of the administration came to his workplace and told employees that they needed to vote. "They said it directly. But they did not give instructions on who to vote for," Ilya told a correspondent of "Caucasian Knot".

According to him, employees were put on a bus and taken to early voting. Ilya explained his decision to comply by fearing for his job. "If I lose my job, I will have nothing to live on. I have a family," he noted.

Multi-day voting complicated independent monitoring

The prospects for the CPRF in Kuban are currently particularly weak, noted political scientist Elena Didenko, who previously worked as a member of the election commission in Sochi from the CPRF. She linked this to changes in the regional party organization and its relations with the regional authorities.

The number of communists in the region has halved in recent years.

"It is precisely in Kuban, which was previously called the "red belt of Russia", that now, due to the shortsighted policy of the regional committee, the chances of the CPRF in Kuban have fallen to a historic low," Didenko told a correspondent of "Caucasian Knot".

According to her, the number of communists in the region has halved in recent years. Didenko sees the problem of the CPRF not only in the number of the organization but also in the ability of the party leadership to protect ordinary activists.

There are virtually no independent observers in Sochi, noted Elena Didenko. At the same time, the regional election commission held training seminars in September for representatives of parties, observers, and members of precinct election commissions on the procedures for early voting and counting votes. Didenko believes that representatives of parties, commission members, and observers undergo strict selection, citing her own expulsion from the CPRF and the expulsion of her like-minded people as an example.

Social discontent will not necessarily lead to an increase in support for the CPRF or other opposition parties, Didenko believes. In her assessment, some dissatisfied residents will simply not come to the elections, so protest sentiments may manifest primarily through low turnout.

Multi-day voting, in Didenko's opinion, also complicates independent monitoring. She believes that additional days increase the opportunities for manipulation in conditions of insufficient presence of independent observers.

The prospects for opposition parties were also pessimistically assessed by Vladimir Atamanchuk. He believes that protest sentiments will not lead to a noticeable increase in the representation of non-governmental parties, as, in his opinion, pacifist candidates were removed from the elections, and the existing system does not allow the opposition to protect the result.