Analysts have ruled out the possibility of protest voting in Dagestan.
The protest potential of the residents of Dagestan, dissatisfied with communal problems and high tariffs, is in a passive state and may only manifest in low voter turnout during elections, analysts interviewed by "Caucasian Knot" believe.
As reported by "Caucasian Knot", some residents of Dagestan do not intend to participate in the voting due to distrust of the candidates and the election results, while a budget sector employee complained about the management's demand to support a certain party.
On September 18-20, elections for deputies of the State Duma and the People's Assembly of the Republic will take place in Dagestan. Five parties have been registered for the elections to the People's Assembly, and three single-member districts have been formed for the elections to the State Duma in the republic.
Political scientist Albert Esedov, chief editor of "RIA Derbent" Milrad Fatulaev, and a Dagestani journalist who wished to remain unnamed provided an assessment of the protest potential in Dagestan ahead of the elections to "Caucasian Knot".
The existing social tension in Dagestan due to numerous and ongoing communal problems will have no impact on the elections, believes Albert Esedov.
"The protest potential in Dagestan, which the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs for the North Caucasus Federal District, General Bachurin, warned about at a meeting of the Dagestani Ministry of Internal Affairs in January – related to problems with water, electricity, heating, and tariffs – is not just everyday inconveniences, but a trigger for rising social tension that leads to increased protest activity. However, this protest activity, I would say, is temporary: everyday inconveniences, while capable of uniting those who face them, do so for a short period. The lack of electricity, and subsequently water and heating, as we see, can activate the population even for illegal actions, including blocking roads, but people disperse immediately as soon as electricity returns," said the political scientist.
The statement by the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs for the North Caucasus Federal District, Sergey Bachurin, was made at a meeting of the Dagestani Ministry of Internal Affairs on January 19. "Unresolved problems in the housing and communal services sector, including providing the population with energy resources, cause dissatisfaction among citizens, and [this] leads to an increase in protest activity," - quoted Bachurin's words by the Telegram channel of the regional Ministry of Internal Affairs.
At the same time, election participants do not address the pressing problems of Dagestan residents. "As for the upcoming elections, I have not noticed a single party that has somehow 'harnessed' such protest sentiments in its election campaign, proposing solutions to communal problems. Moreover, the 'party of power' has declared its program 'popular'. In Dagestani public forums, people complain that they have not seen any candidates at all, except for those who flaunt on banners against the backdrop of the routine slogans that fill the city. Regarding turnout – during three days of voting, it is practically impossible to track it," believes Esedov.
After the resignation of Sergey Melikov, the protest potential, which the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs for the North Caucasus Federal District, General Bachurin, warned about in January at the meeting of the Dagestani Ministry of Internal Affairs, has not disappeared but has transitioned into a passive form, believes Milrad Fatulaev. He noted that the reasons for dissatisfaction have not disappeared, and statistics on complaints confirm this, and with the onset of the autumn-winter period, their number will only grow.
"The everyday triggers that Bachurin warned about are working. We have already seen three street blockades in Makhachkala due to power outages. Structural problems – the clan system, weak infrastructure, poverty – remain. Without real improvements, the 'credit of trust' will quickly run out. The change of power provided a temporary respite. By the winter of 2026, electricity and water will not improve, and the 'credit of trust' may turn into even greater disappointment – but not with Melikov, but with the new team," said the journalist.
In August, residents of Makhachkala took to the streets three times within a week with local protest actions due to power outages. For instance, on August 6, residents of Kadyrov Street in Makhachkala blocked the road due to the lack of electricity for several days, and after the protest, electricity was restored to their homes. On August 12, residents of the Makhachkala neighborhood New City gathered on Kammaeva Street, demanding electricity. The authorities soon reported the resumption of electricity supply, explaining the outages as an accident. On August 13, residents of Irchi Kazaka Street blocked traffic due to the lack of electricity for three days, and then the energy workers explained the outage as damage to a facility on private property.
At the same time, it is clear that the "rivals" of "United Russia" will not be able to turn the protest potential into a real increase in representation in the State Duma, as competitors to the ruling party exist only under its coordination, Fatulaev added.
"It is obvious that the protest potential will manifest through low turnout, rather than through voting for the opposition. The administrative resource is at work, the list of the ruling party has already been 'cleaned' for the necessary candidates. If turnout is low, and protest votes are spread between the CPRF and 'Just Russia', 'United Russia' will retain its majority. I do not see a real increase in opposition representation in the State Duma from Dagestan," said Fatulaev.
The protest potential in Makhachkala, and in general, in Dagestan, has not disappeared anywhere, because its reasons have not gone away, believes the Dagestani journalist.
"The population continues to suffer from poor roads, constant repairs of power grids, lack of water, and the normal functioning of public transport. In addition, it should be noted that there are huge problems with the protection of citizens' rights in Dagestan as a whole. This includes the repressive work of investigative bodies, the prosecutor's office, and the courts. This tension is exacerbated by the constant rise in prices for housing and communal services, food, and fuel, which has become scarce," says the journalist.
At the same time, there is not a single legal political force in the republic and the country that is capable and willing to turn this protest potential into its resource. "The rivals of 'United Russia' do not want and cannot even take control of the precinct election commissions, where the fate of the elections is decided. And switching the protest into their resource is a more complex task in terms of political courage," he concluded.