Pro-government Russian politicians and the Armenian opposition pointed to the risks in the event of the withdrawal of the military base.

In the event of the withdrawal of the Russian military base located in Gyumri, Armenia will face security and border protection issues and the collapse of the existing economic model in Gyumri, where the military base provides about 15,000 jobs, Russian politicians and representatives of Armenian opposition parties are convinced.

As reported by "Caucasian Knot", if Russia decides to withdraw the 102nd military base, Armenia will not object, as its presence is not a vital necessity, said Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, commenting on Russian President Vladimir Putin's words that Russia is ready to leave the Armenian Gyumri if Yerevan believes that the Russian military base is not needed there.

If the Russian base is withdrawn, Armenia will face consequences

Russian politicians, in light of Pashinyan's statement about the Russian military base in Gyumri, indicated that it is more important for Armenia than for Russia.

"Pashinyan's statement is not a diplomatic slip. It is yet another public confirmation of Yerevan's course towards a break with Russia and the dismantling of its own security system. The Russian base in Gyumri is not a relic of the past. It is a real factor of deterrence. For decades, it has been one of the elements of protecting Armenia from external threats, covering a strategic direction," wrote the active state advisor of the Russian Federation, head of the Center for Military and Political Conflict Studies Andrey Klintsevich in his Telegram channel.

According to Klintsevich, Pashinyan could well achieve the complete dismantling of Armenia as a state if he continues in the same spirit and replaces Russian presence with an ephemeral "European choice," behind which there are neither soldiers nor commitments.

The statement of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan about the Russian base in Gyumri is a bargaining tactic, believes a member of the State Duma Defense Committee Andrey Kolesnik.

"This is an element of bargaining, they are trying to get some conditions, money, maybe conclude some new contract, we are paying for the base. This is not even a hint. These are subtle moments, this is a subject of interstate intergovernmental relations," RTVI quotes him.

"And now the balance for Armenia is quite fragile. The decision will be up to our leadership, because it is a long-term contract," he noted.

Pashinyan, according to him, wants to sit on two chairs, but "it is difficult, you need to balance." Armenia's turn away from Russia will result in significant losses for Yerevan, the interlocutor predicts.

"Still, I think Pashinyan is mistaken in that he is slowly but surely tearing relations with Russia. This is not beneficial for Armenia in any way," he emphasized.

The Armenian opposition pointed to risks for Yerevan in the event of the base's withdrawal

The closure of the 102nd Russian military base in Gyumri could lead to the loss of up to 15,000 jobs or a comparable reduction in economic impact, said a deputy of the "Strong Armenia" faction, economist Aik Farmanyan.

If we assume that about 5,000 servicemen serve at the 102nd military base, its closure could mean the loss of up to 15,000 jobs

According to him, various estimates suggest that for every serviceman, two to three jobs are created in the economy. "If we assume that about 5,000 servicemen serve at the 102nd military base, its closure could mean the loss of up to 15,000 jobs or a reduction in economic impact," "Voice of Armenia" quotes his words.

He pointed out that the base is located in the Shirak region, where, according to him, the poverty level exceeds 40%.

"What impact will this have on the economy of Gyumri and the entire Shirak? I leave the conclusions to the public," the deputy concluded.

Former Armenian parliament deputy, member of the Republican Party Tigran Abramyan pointed to the risks in the event of the withdrawal of the Russian base.

Who will guard the Armenian-Turkish and Armenian-Iranian borders after Russia leaves?

"If the military base is withdrawn, then the withdrawal of border troops will become a matter of time, and it is not excluded that Moscow will not even wait for the initiative of official Yerevan. Setting aside the geopolitical situation on this issue, I want to raise a simple question: who will guard the Armenian-Turkish and Armenian-Iranian borders after Russia leaves? Participants in military exercises, the "Defender of the Fatherland" program, or conscripts of reduced military service," ArmInfo quotes his words.

The leader of the "Reformists" party Vaan Babayan noted that discussions about the withdrawal of the 102nd Russian military base from Armenia should be assessed primarily from the perspective of security and national interests of Armenia.

"It is located in Gyumri, in close proximity to the Turkish-Armenian border, and its presence was also a factor of regional deterrence. The withdrawal of the military base does not in itself mean that Armenia becomes more or less secure. It all depends on what will replace this security component. If, alongside the reduction of Russian military presence, Armenia does not form a clear, functional, and long-term new security system, serious risks may arise: a change in the balance of power, increased vulnerability of borders, and reduced resistance of Armenia to external pressure," Babayan believes.

In his opinion, the withdrawal of the military base can only be discussed when a clear answer is given: "what will replace it, what guarantees will Armenia receive, and how will possible security risks be neutralized," the politician summarized.

When Putin says, "I am ready to remove my military base from the territory of Armenia," it literally means: "I am ready to go all the way"

Russia has only one crucial asset in Armenia, and that is its military base, believes political technologist Armen Badalyan. According to him, all other assets, such as the "South Caucasus Railway," "Gazprom Armenia," and so on, are of secondary importance to Moscow.

"When Putin says, 'I am ready to remove my military base from the territory of Armenia,' it literally means: 'I am ready to go all the way.' That is, he makes it clear that Pashinyan will not be able to blackmail him on any issue: neither on the arrest of Robert Kocharyan, nor on the 'bargain' regarding the 'South Caucasus Railway,' nor due to money," News.Am quoted him.

At the same time, Putin effectively stated that he washes his hands. The future of Armenia and the Armenian people no longer concerns him, and he is quite ready to shift the further negative consequences onto the shoulders of the current authorities of Armenia, Badalyan pointed out.

Servicemen of the military base have repeatedly found themselves at the center of scandals

The 102nd military base of the Southern Military District in Gyumri is part of the group of Russian troops in the Caucasus. The term of the agreement with Armenia on the placement of the base was extended in August 2010 until 2044, according to a report by the "Caucasian Knot" about the 102nd Russian military base.

It should be noted , on the night of December 3, 2018, 57-year-old Gyumri resident Julieta Gukasian was beaten, who later died in the hospital. Russian serviceman Andrey Razgildeev was detained, he faces up to ten years in prison under the article on intentional infliction of serious bodily harm resulting in the victim's death by negligence. Armenia handed over the accused to the Russian side, he is under arrest at the 102nd base, it was reported then. In 2024, the Shirak court decided for the fifth time to resume the investigation into the murder of Gyumri resident Julieta Gukasian. However, the accused has not appeared in court even once, Gukasian's daughter and human rights defenders doubted that he is under arrest at the Russian military base.

Against the backdrop of Gukasian's murder, a rally was held demanding the withdrawal of the military base, its participants then reminded of other cases of crimes committed by Russian military personnel against Armenian citizens, in particular, the murder of the Avetisyan family. In both cases, the culprits of the tragedy were servicemen of the 102nd Russian base located in Gyumri.

From 1999 to 2015, at least 11 residents of Gyumri died in incidents involving Russian military personnel, according to a report by the "Caucasian Knot" "Gyumri: how the Russian base harmed local residents". The most resonant was the murder of seven members of the Avetisyan family on January 12, 2015. The serviceman of the 102nd Russian base Valery Permyakov was found guilty of this crime and sentenced to life imprisonment. During the investigation, residents of Armenia repeatedly held protests, demanding that local, not Russian law enforcement agencies handle the case.

In 2017, residents of Armenia answered the question of the "Caucasian Knot" about whether the base is a source of calm for them or, on the contrary, anxiety. The question was raised against the backdrop of the sentence for the murder of the Avetisyans and incidents involving Russian servicemen. Thus, in the two years preceding the survey, from 2015 to 2017, six servicemen were killed, died in accidents, or were found hanged. Two more servicemen were injured in fights.

Some commentators pointed out that there are no significant changes in relations, as individual cases cannot be used to judge all military personnel. Others noted that tension towards the Russian military is present, although the military base itself plays a deterrent role for Armenia's neighbors.