Baku political scientists assessed the limits of escalation in Russian-Azerbaijani relations.

Despite another round of crisis in relations, Moscow and Baku will be forced to maintain pragmatic cooperation, as they are interdependent in trade and the implementation of logistics projects, including the "North-South" corridor, noted Baku political scientists interviewed by "Caucasian Knot".

As reported by "Caucasian Knot", the Prosecutor General's Office of Azerbaijan has initiated a criminal case against Russian media experts Ivan Knyazev, Alexey Chadaev, and Semyon Uralov, accusing them of public calls for violent change of the constitutional order and violation of the territorial integrity of the country, terrorism, and incitement of national hatred. All three have been declared wanted and arrested in absentia. The Russian ambassador to Azerbaijan, Mikhail Evdokimov, was summoned to the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry in connection with statements and threats made in Russian media against the country and its leadership. Baku expressed a strong protest and demanded immediate measures to stop provocative rhetoric and calls for violence.

The escalation in the media environment has become part of the crisis in relations between Moscow and Baku

Official Baku does not view the anti-Azerbaijani rhetoric in Russian media as a personal initiative of individual journalists or analysts. Azerbaijan understands well how the media system in Russia is structured and how closely leading information platforms are connected to power structures, noted Azerbaijani political scientist Ilgar Velizade.

This is a targeted and coordinated campaign

"When the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry reacts to such attacks, the statement clearly emphasizes: this is a targeted and coordinated campaign backed by Russian decision-making centers," he told a correspondent of "Caucasian Knot".

The scale of the information attack and the figures of key participants only confirm this position, Velizade believes. "When sharp statements are made by figures like Vladimir Solovyov, who regularly broadcasts on the state television channel "Russia 24", the version of 'initiative from below' is completely excluded. People of such a level cannot broadcast theses that fundamentally diverge from the Kremlin's vision – otherwise, they simply would not work there. The same applies to other Russian propagandists," said the political scientist.

The tension in the information field between Russia and the post-Soviet countries, including Azerbaijan, is caused by the mismatch of historical and ideological narratives. While the Russian discourse presents the collapse of the USSR as a drama, the independent states see the collapse of the empire as an opportunity for an independent path, Velizade explained.

Russian media operate on a simplified template, unwilling to consider the national interests of partner countries. The refusal to recognize the right of independent states to their own foreign policy and historical memory remains the main trigger for information escalation, the political scientist believes.

It seemed that the crisis in relations between Baku and Moscow after the crash of the "Azerbaijan Airlines" plane had been overcome. The parties stated the need to develop a coordinated line in the information field, which gave hope for the incident to be resolved without consequences for all areas of bilateral cooperation, noted political scientist Ilgar Velizade.

"However, the current rhetoric clearly shows that this is not the case: destructive narratives in the media space persist, and the existing 'red lines' continue to shift. It reaches absurd theses – at one of the recent round tables, statements were made that Azerbaijan is legally not an independent state, and its citizens born before 1991 allegedly must obey Russian laws. Such statements, which do not withstand any criticism, are broadcast on various platforms and cause understandable outrage, leading, among other things, to a harsh reaction from the Prosecutor General's Office of Azerbaijan," Velizade noted.

Political scientist Ilgar Velizade believes that to stop the escalation, it is necessary to cease the replication of such destructive ideas. "The existing regulatory framework – in particular, the Declaration on Allied Interaction from 2022 – directly obliges the parties to prevent the artificial incitement of enmity. The algorithm for solving the problem is extremely clear; the matter remains in its real implementation," said the analyst.

The "systematic pressure" in the Russian Federation on representatives of the Azerbaijani diaspora also serves as a negative backdrop for bilateral relations, according to Velizade. "The chronology of information messages indicates a large-scale purge of the leadership of diaspora organizations. Having business assets, they stimulated economic and interregional cooperation between Azerbaijan and the subjects of the Russian Federation. Their activities were long encouraged by the authorities, but today these people are being subjected to criminal prosecution or stripped of citizenship and expelled from the country," Velizade noted.

What is happening looks like a targeted campaign that ignores the existing regulatory framework. In Russia, these people are accused of involvement in crimes. However, questions arise about the timeliness of these actions, the political scientist pointed out. "It looks, to put it mildly, strange that individuals who have legally worked in Russia for 20-30 years suddenly become figures in cases of so-called 'national criminal groups'," Velizade said.

Russia and Azerbaijan have tools for mutual pressure in trade, economic, transport, and logistics areas, and other spheres. A vivid example of this is the mutual dependence of the parties on the international transport corridor "North-South": for Azerbaijan, participation in the project means strengthening transit potential and enhancing its role on the geo-economic map of Eurasia. For Russia, it is one of the key exits to the markets of the Middle East, the Persian Gulf, and the Eastern Mediterranean, noted Ilgar Velizade.

"A failure or freeze of this route will strike at Russia's positions not only economically but also geopolitically. Therefore, both sides try not to use transport arteries as a tool of struggle," said the political scientist.

In bilateral relations between Russia and Azerbaijan, pragmatism currently prevails, but the existing tension should not be considered temporary, as it is a deep structural crisis reflecting a conceptual rethinking of the role and place of both states in the region and on the international stage. The main condition for overcoming the crisis is the recognition by the Russian side of the changed geopolitical realities, he believes.

"Relations should be built strictly on the principle of equal partnership, not on the outdated logic of 'suzerain - vassal'. All steps by Baku are aimed precisely at protecting the right to independently determine its course and sphere of responsibility," Velizade emphasized.

The awareness of mutual damage from direct confrontation remains the main restraining factor, stimulating the parties to seek compromise in the spirit of the signed allied agreements, the political scientist summarized.

Baku has intensified distancing from Moscow

The current tough position of Azerbaijan towards Moscow is not an accidental surge of tension but a logical manifestation of the new balance of power that has finally formed in the South Caucasus, emphasized the director of the Turan analytical service Mehman Aliyev.

According to Aliyev, Azerbaijan's military successes in Karabakh in 2020 and during the operation in September 2023, after which Baku regained control over the region, as well as the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers showed that Moscow, distracted by the conflict with Ukraine, is no longer able to impose its own security architecture on the South Caucasus.

Baku no longer accepts the rules of the game dictated from outside, but positions itself as a full-fledged middle power

"Against this backdrop, the alliance formalized by Baku with Ankara gives Azerbaijan a unique 'insurance' that other leaders of the post-Soviet space did not have. Military-technical cooperation and a political alliance with Turkey effectively balance Russia's influence without the need for Azerbaijan to join NATO," Aliyev told a correspondent of "Caucasian Knot".

On the other hand, the expansion of the Southern Gas Corridor, the increase in gas supplies to the EU, including its export to Germany and Austria, has allowed Baku to secure its status as a critically important and sovereign supplier of resources for the West, he continued.

"The development of the Middle Corridor and the implementation of the route through southern Armenia to Nakhchivan and Turkey radically change the transport map of Eurasia. Russia remains a participant in certain projects like the "North-South" corridor, but is no longer a monopolist in regional logistics. Another demarche by Azerbaijan only emphasizes the new reality: Baku no longer accepts the rules of the game dictated from outside, but positions itself as a full-fledged middle power, dictating its own terms," said Mehman Aliyev.

For Russia, trade with Azerbaijan is small in the scale of the entire economy, but for Baku, Russian supplies and the market are significant in certain sectors. However, Azerbaijan has counter-leverage: transit to Iran, through which the "North-South" corridor passes. Therefore, a sanctions war would be costly for both sides and would not guarantee Moscow's subordination of Baku. Thus, Moscow, despite periodic demonstrations of discontent through the media, avoids sanction pressure on Baku, the analyst believes.

Azerbaijan advocates that no external player should be a hegemon in the South Caucasus and does not pursue a policy of expelling Russia from the region. For Moscow, the rational choice would be to accept the role of one of several centers and compete on price, infrastructure, and market access. An attempt to restore monopoly through pressure, on the contrary, will accelerate the very routes and alliances that bypass Russia, Aliyev noted.

Mutual interests keep Moscow and Baku from breaking relations

The Kremlin tries to act as the "older brother" in relations with Baku, believes the head of the Alliance Research Center Abutalyb Samadov.

"Russia believes that Azerbaijan should strictly adhere to the Declaration on Allied Interaction signed on February 22, 2022, in Moscow, while it itself may not comply with this document. Russia expects constant concessions from Azerbaijan," he told a correspondent of "Caucasian Knot".

In his view, Moscow does not want to come to terms with the independent policy of official Baku and is particularly dissatisfied with Azerbaijan's support for the territorial integrity of Ukraine, although Baku's position is based on international law.

The analyst also identified pressure on the Azerbaijani diaspora as a separate problem in bilateral relations.

"Russia wants to carry out any illegal actions against our compatriots living on its territory and expects that Azerbaijan will not react to this. Azerbaijan suppresses the activities of Russian intelligence representatives on its territory, while Russia believes that Azerbaijan should not do this. In short, Russia wants a lot, but when it comes to itself, it does not take anyone's interests into account," Samadov believes.

Points of tension between Moscow and Baku include Azerbaijan's position on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, information attacks by Russian media, and attempts by the Kremlin to use the Azerbaijani diaspora as a tool of pressure, noted a member of the Azerbaijani National Public Committee for Eurointegration Togrul Juvarly.

Mutual economic interests will force the parties to maintain pragmatic cooperation

There is a struggle between the countries for control over logistics corridors, where Baku prioritizes independent formats with Turkey and the West. As a result, a model of tough and pragmatic confrontation has formed between Moscow and Baku, the analyst believes.

"If Russia, on the one hand, does not want transport corridors to pass through Azerbaijan bypassing it, on the other hand, it is also interested in cooperation with Azerbaijan for the use of the "North-South" corridor. Moreover, for Russia, in the context of military escalation in the Black Sea and threats to civilian shipping, the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway is in demand. An alternative to maritime transport through the Bosphorus and the Black Sea is the delivery of goods intended for Russia from Africa to the Turkish port of Mersin, and from there – further transportation by rail through Turkey, Georgia, and Azerbaijan to the Russian Federation. For Azerbaijan, Russia remains a major market for non-oil products. Therefore, mutual economic interests will force the parties to maintain pragmatic cooperation," he told a correspondent of "Caucasian Knot".