Analysts assessed the potential of the Trans-Caspian fiber-optic line
The project "Sumgayit – Aktau" is forming the digital component of the Middle Corridor, while Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are trying to take a mediating position in the digital sphere, which they are already establishing in freight transport and energy. At the same time, it is premature to talk about the commercial potential of the project, noted Baku experts. The underwater line is aimed at international traffic and the development of data processing centers, Russian analysts believe.
As reported by "Caucasian Knot", the Trans-Caspian corridor, considering economic factors, is unable to replace maritime routes through the Hormuz or Bab-el-Mandeb straits, however, against the backdrop of the war in Iran, its significance as an alternative route to Europe has temporarily increased, Russian analysts believe.
Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have completed a historic stage in the implementation of the project in the Caspian Sea: the laying of the marine section of the Trans-Caspian fiber-optic line Sumgayit-Aktau has been completed. The line, approximately 380 kilometers long, has become the first fiber-optic infrastructure laid on the bottom of the Caspian Sea. The system, with a capacity of over 400 Tbps, is being implemented by AzerTelecom International and Kazakhtelecom through the joint venture CaspiLink B.V. The project is fully financed from the operators' own funds, without attracting funds from the state budget, JamNews reported.
Baku analysts assessed the significance of the Trans-Caspian cable line
Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have completed the most challenging part of the construction of the Trans-Caspian fiber-optic communication line — the laying of the cable on the bottom of the Caspian Sea, said the expert of the Turan Analytical Service Tapdyg Farhadoglu to the correspondent of "Caucasian Knot".
"The underwater highway has reached the Kazakh coast, creating the first direct digital connection between Aktau and Sumgayit. However, to put the line into operation, operators need to connect the cable to the shore stations, complete the ground infrastructure, and conduct commissioning tests. The line is scheduled to be put into commercial operation by the end of 2026. Therefore, the completion of the marine stage is an engineering finish, but not yet a commercial one," he pointed out.
According to him, until data on tariffs, channel reservation, anchor clients, and agreements with operators in China, Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and Europe are published, it is difficult to conclude whether the line will become a major Eurasian route or remain primarily a regional connection between Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan.
Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are trying to take the same mediating position in the digital sphere that they are already establishing in freight transport and energy
At the same time, the expert notes that the significance of the Trans-Caspian line goes beyond the telecommunications market.
"Most of the land internet traffic between China and Europe has traditionally passed through Russia. Events in Ukraine, sanction risks, and companies' desire to diversify critical infrastructure have increased interest in routes that do not depend on Russian territory. Southern routes through Iran also face sanction and political restrictions. Against this backdrop, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are trying to take the same mediating position in the digital sphere that they are already establishing in freight transport and energy," Farhadoglu continued.
For Kazakhstan, the cable creates an additional outlet to global networks and reduces dependence on northern routes. For Azerbaijan, the line enhances the country's role as the western outlet of Central Asia. Baku has the opportunity to connect the Caspian cable with networks going through Georgia and Turkey to Europe, and in the future — with planned communication projects towards the Black Sea.
"However, a geographical alternative alone does not guarantee commercial success. International operators choose routes based on a combination of price, signal delay, reliability, regulatory transparency, and the ability to quickly switch traffic in case of an accident," the analyst continued.
He pointed out that the Trans-Caspian line project faces certain challenges. The declared capacity of 400 Tbps significantly exceeds the current internal needs of Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, which emphasizes the transit focus of the project, but simultaneously creates the risk of insufficient loading at the initial stage. Equally important will be the modernization of ground networks in Central Asia and the South Caucasus, as well as the elimination of administrative barriers at state borders.
Underwater cables also remain vulnerable infrastructure. Although the route was chosen considering anchorages, military exercise areas, and environmental requirements, operators will need a reservation system. Without an alternative channel, damage to the line could temporarily interrupt the entire Trans-Caspian flow.
The Sumgayit – Aktau project is effectively forming the digital component of the Middle Corridor, serving as an alternative to the sanctioned northern route through Russia and the unstable southern route through the Red Sea
"The engineering solution of the project has been achieved. However, other issues related to ground infrastructure and commercial tariffs need to be resolved. If ground networks and commercial agreements lag behind, then the powerful underwater cable risks becoming infrastructure whose capabilities will remain untapped for many years, and the economic effect of the project will be neutralized," Farhadoglu said.
The effectiveness of the Caspian cable will depend on the ground part
"The Sumgayit – Aktau project is effectively forming the digital component of the Middle Corridor, serving as an alternative to the sanctioned northern route through Russia and the unstable southern route through the Red Sea. It potentially eliminates the "digital deadlock" of Central Asia, providing the region with direct data transit between China and Europe with a very high capacity of over 400 Tbps and minimal delay," noted member of the Azerbaijani National Public Committee for Eurointegration Togrul Juvarly.
However, he continued, the potential of the corridor may hit "bottlenecks".
"The effectiveness of the Caspian cable will depend on how effective its ground extensions will be — highways through Georgia and Turkey to the west, as well as through Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and China to the east. If certain sections have a narrow bandwidth or outdated equipment is used, then a "bottleneck effect" may arise, which will affect the overall volumes and speed of information transmission. In addition, large independent internet traffic exchange points (IXP) and international-scale data centers have not yet been formed in the region, which slows down local data distribution. Just like in international transport corridors, there is regulatory fragmentation and transit barriers. Different countries have varying requirements for cybersecurity, cross-border data transfer, encryption standards, and customs procedures for equipment. The effectiveness of the Trans-Caspian digital corridor will depend on the effective resolution of these issues and international coordination," Juvarly said.
Azerbaijan, he said, has the resources to ensure the ground component of the infrastructure of this digital corridor.
"The creation of data centers and other infrastructure related to internet traffic primarily requires large energy capacities. Azerbaijan already has surplus generation capacity (with a surplus of 2 GW). The country is actively developing renewable energy sources and plans to increase solar and wind generation capacity to 8 GW by 2030. This means Azerbaijan will be ready to meet not only its own needs but also supply electricity to neighboring countries and Europe," Juvarly said.
According to him, there are already state and private data centers in Azerbaijan, but their capabilities are limited.
"But the government is currently actively engaged in the digitalization of the economy and public administration, implementing AI and all possible projects that enhance the country's transit capabilities. In this regard, it is quite expected that large data centers will be built in Azerbaijan in the near future with the involvement of global technology giants. Azerbaijan is currently actively promoting projects to create regional data centers, appealing specifically to its surplus generating energy capacities with low electricity production costs," Juvarly continued.
He noted that in recent years, Azerbaijan has also focused on training qualified specialists in the IT field. On the other hand, in the analyst's view, the shortage of highly specialized professionals in cloud architecture, AI infrastructure, and cybersecurity can be addressed by attracting personnel from abroad.
The weakest link, Juvarly noted, is the absence of international cloud providers.
"The government has a conservative approach with a priority on local state clouds for reasons of digital sovereignty. However, the tasks of large-scale digitalization require the creation of regulatory conditions for utilizing the technological capabilities of transnational IT giants," Juvarly further noted.
According to him, the potentially land-water route from Western Europe to China (Frankfurt – Sumgayit – Aktau – Urumqi) is physically shorter than the detour maritime routes through the Indian Ocean, the Suez Canal, or around Africa, and has an advantage over the northern route due to the absence of sanction and secondary political risks associated with transit through the territory of the Russian Federation. In addition, due to cheap electricity and the presence of a free economic zone around the port of Alyat with a special tax and customs regime, the cost of creating data centers in Azerbaijan for transnational corporations may be significantly lower than in Europe or the Middle East.
However, Juvarly emphasizes that to turn the Sumgayit – Aktau project from a simple physical data transmission channel into a full-fledged digital hub, Azerbaijan needs to take measures to ease cloud legislation, create attractive conditions for Big Tech companies through incentives in the free economic zone, and rapidly expand the training of qualified IT personnel.
The laying of the Trans-Caspian line for Azerbaijan means diversifying digital channels
Senior researcher at the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Professor Alexey Gunya believes that the laying of the Trans-Caspian line for Azerbaijan means diversifying digital channels.
Currently, there is nothing to fully load this channel, but it is extremely important for the future, as it diversifies the flows that are currently either going south through Hormuz or through Russia
"Currently, there is nothing to fully load this channel, but it is extremely important for the future, as it diversifies the flows that are currently either going south through Hormuz or through Russia. Now they will have their own flow," he told the correspondent of "Caucasian Knot".
According to the professor, an important part of the project is its geopolitical component.
"This is a continuation of meridional connections West-East bypassing Russia. And here one can also speak of strengthening the 'Turkic axis'. Following the connection of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan will surely appear in the project later. It is quite possible that they will have an independent branch. So overall, this is a continuation of Azerbaijan's policy, which wants to act as a connecting player in the region in the near future," Gunya explained.
Member of the Adam Smith Council, political scientist Sergey Boyko stated that the highway is the beginning of the implementation of a large-scale project for a digital Silk Road between China and Europe.
"It is clear that there is still a lot of work and investment to be done to implement it, but the digital line outside of Russia and Iran is not only a contribution to the digital sovereignty of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. It is also an additional digital line of global communications, which have been under threat due to the conflict in the Persian Gulf and <
Researcher at the Caspian Institute for Strategic Studies (CISS) Alexander Karavaev reported that the Caspian fiber-optic communication line (FOCL) of the Middle Corridor is largely the result of the signing of the Caspian Convention and does not have an overtly anti-Russian or anti-Iranian character.
The phenomenon of transitioning from the "geopolitical value" of a particular direction to the value of having a multilateral network of communications arises for both oil and gas and information flows
"From now on, pipelines and communications are under the control of the project participants. The phenomenon of transitioning from the "geopolitical value" of a particular direction to the value of having a multilateral network of communications arises for both oil and gas and information flows," he told the correspondent of "Caucasian Knot".
According to the researcher, along the Caspian FOCL, in the medium term of five to seven years, an energy cable will be laid to the Black Sea coast, where a similar energy cable project is being developed from the Georgian to the Romanian shores.
"The highway with a capacity of 400 terabits per second is intended to ensure future international traffic, connecting, among other things, regional data centers in Central Asian countries with data centers in Azerbaijan and Armenia and further with the rest of the world. It is clear that this is not just a standalone information highway infrastructure of the region, but also a crucial element of the digital economy and the political ideology of the "green transition" in the EU. That is, in relations between Kazakhstan and the EU, this is a mutually positive factor, just like the supply of Kazakh oil to Italy and other EU countries," Karavaev explained.
He noted that the new cable will primarily connect with the world's internet highways.
"The capacity of the cable is designed to handle international traffic. About 95% of the highway will be allocated for it. While the current regional traffic between Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan will take no more than 5% in this cable. And this highway is important not only for the South Caucasus and Central Asia to connect with the world but also for the rest of the world. Now, in conditions where political conflicts may develop in certain regions, duplication and the ability to switch networks are necessary," Karavaev pointed out.
In his opinion, the new highway will create a new economy of data centers throughout the South Caucasus.
"Large data centers can be united into a single network so that they become major data processing centers for operational high-speed communication. Most likely, the Caspian FOCL will also absorb Armenian traffic. Moreover, in Armenia, within the framework of cooperation with the USA, there is an attempt to create an analogue of Silicon Valley, so Armenia will provide a very large traffic. The FOCL along the bottom of the Black Sea from Georgia to Bulgaria (Caucasus Cable System) has already been laid in the late 2000s. But for the Caspian cable, another connection to Romania is planned (an energy cable will be laid in parallel). And of course, this traffic with double-digit percentage growth will connect new data centers," Karavaev said.
At the same time, he believes that trunk communications, like railways and highways, do not serve to separate the South Caucasus from the Russian Federation.
"This means that such communication channels cannot be a way to build barriers. On the contrary, commentators discussing, for example, the interaction of the Middle Corridor and, say, the MTK "North-South" do not speak of route competition; there is no competition of routes. It is necessary to use sections of each route that are beneficial for the countries of the region. Azerbaijan, for example, will not hit its left hand against its right hand, that is, it will not bet exclusively on one route against other routes," Karavaev believes.
Founder and director of ITcomms Central Asia Alexander Lichtman reported that the declared infrastructure of the Sumgayit-Aktau cable is currently insufficient to create a full-fledged international route.
"But this is a very good first step for Kazakhstan to gain information independence, because as of a week ago, before this cable was pulled, almost 80% of all internet traffic in Kazakhstan was received from Russia through Russian nodes, and all the troubles that could happen in Russia could also be transmitted to Kazakhstan. Therefore, this highway is very good for balancing Kazakhstan's integration into the global digital infrastructure," he told the correspondent of "Caucasian Knot".
As for Azerbaijan, in my opinion, its role is to be a support between Europe and China
The specialist noted that both in Kazakhstan and in the South Caucasus, the additional cable will not come to a desert but will lie on an already prepared infrastructure.
"But for the project to truly become a sustainable digital corridor, further digitalization is needed. As for Azerbaijan, in my opinion, its role is to be a support between Europe and China; the main cable is currently going along the bottom of the Black Sea," Lichtman believes.