Analysts commented on Baku's reaction to Israel's decision to recognize the genocide of Armenians.

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The authorities of Azerbaijan reacted sharply to the decision of the Israeli government to recognize the genocide of Armenians, after which the vote on the bill in the Knesset was postponed. Analysts called Baku's reaction predictable, but expressed different opinions regarding whether Jerusalem anticipated such a reaction.

As reported by "Caucasian Knot", the Israeli government unanimously approved a bill for the official recognition of the genocide of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire, which now must be approved by the Knesset (parliament). Such a decision could bring bonuses to Armenia on the diplomatic stage, believe Armenian political scientists. However, on July 13, the vote on the project to recognize the genocide of Armenians in the Knesset was suspended against the backdrop of tensions in the Middle East.

After the Israeli government approved the bill for the official recognition of the genocide of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire, the Azerbaijani government issued a sharp statement condemning this decision at the end of June, writes the Times of Israel.

The statement from the Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs says that the recognition of the genocide of Armenians "distorts the truth" about the events of 1915 and turns complex historical issues into a subject of political bargaining, without having legal or scientific grounds for it. "Such actions do not contribute to reconciliation and achieving mutual understanding. They only lead to increased division and undermine efforts to achieve peace and stability in the region. We call on the Israeli government to abandon the adopted decision," the statement from the ministry, quoted by the publication, says.

The Israeli government, having approved the bill for the official recognition of the genocide of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire, did not anticipate Azerbaijan's reaction, noted analysts interviewed on July 23 by a correspondent from "Caucasian Knot", including Gershon Kogan, an analyst at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies (BESA) at Bar-Ilan University; Ze'ev Hanin, a professor at Bar-Ilan University; and conflictologist Arif Yunusov, who, however, expressed different opinions regarding why this happened.

In Jerusalem, they likely did not "foresee" Baku's reaction, but considered it manageable in price.

Azerbaijan's reaction was quite predictable, believes Gershon Kogan. "For Baku, the issue of recognizing the genocide of Armenians is not only a historical dispute about the Ottoman Empire, but part of modern memory politics related to Turkey, Karabakh, and the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. Therefore, in Jerusalem, they likely did not 'foresee' Baku's reaction, but considered it manageable in price," he stated.

According to Kogan, the main addressee of the decision was Turkey. "Against the backdrop of deteriorating relations with Ankara, the recognition of the genocide of Armenians became for Israel not only a moral step but also a political signal. At the same time, Israel probably assumes that relations with Azerbaijan are strong enough to withstand this episode: Baku is important to Israel, but Israel remains important to Baku. In short: an information operation was conducted. The political effect was achieved. And the fact that it did not result in official recognition is not critical in this case," the expert noted.

Kogan also stated that there might be a new rise of this issue in the fall, especially if relations with Turkey remain tense. "But Israel will try not to bring this issue to a serious crisis with Azerbaijan. The optimal line for Jerusalem is to recognize the historical fact, send a symbolic signal to Ankara, but not lose the strategic channel with Baku," he concluded.

No strategic interest in this story is currently visible.

Ze'ev Hanin stated that he sees no practical or moral sense, apart from some electoral considerations (which are not very clear), in this démarche. "The Knesset rejected the bill on this topic. No strategic interest in this story is currently visible," he emphasized.

Arif Yunusov linked Israel's actions not to elections, but to more far-reaching plans of the Israelis regarding Azerbaijan. "This is the East. In the East, politics is bargaining. By making this decision, Israel understood perfectly well that there would be such a reaction. Turkey does not care: well, 32 states recognized the genocide of Armenians, now it will be 33 – what difference does it make? But for Azerbaijan, this is a sensitive issue. Therefore, the Israelis knew that Azerbaijan would react, and they would remove the topic from consideration, as if doing Azerbaijan a favor. And if relations with Turkey worsen or Azerbaijan does something wrong, the Israelis can remind them that they removed the issue, so concede as well. And they are not going to give up such a bargaining chip. This is already the fifth time that recognition is being discussed; there will be a sixth and seventh as well," he emphasized.

Let us recall that in 2011, the Knesset of Israel held the first public discussion dedicated to the issue of recognizing the genocide of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire. Most of those present, including the speaker of the Knesset, called on the Israeli parliament to recognize the genocide of Armenians.

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