Analysts assessed the results of Gagloev's presidency.

During Alan Gagloev's presidency in South Ossetia, the degradation of political and social institutions continued, and the outflow of the population from the republic reached such proportions that a new presidential candidate was sent from outside, analysts interviewed by "Caucasian Knot" stated.

As reported by "Caucasian Knot", after a meeting with Vladimir Putin on June 22, Alan Gagloev was appointed his advisor and announced his resignation as president of South Ossetia. The head of the republic's government, Marat Kambolov, was appointed as the acting president of South Ossetia. "Our task is to make our cherished dream come true – to overcome the fate of a divided people and reunite with North Ossetia, reunite with Great Russia," Gagloev stated while announcing his resignation.

Alan Gagloev took office as president of South Ossetia in May 2022. The previous president Anatoly Bibilov lost the elections, which were held in two rounds. Shortly before his departure, on May 13, 2022, Bibilov signed a decree to hold a referendum on the issue of joining South Ossetia to Russia. Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov later stated that this idea "requires further legal refinement," and Alan Gagloev, upon becoming president, suspended Bibilov's decree until consultations with the Russian side were completed. The Russian Foreign Ministry approved this decision, indicating that Bibilov's initiative had not been coordinated with the Kremlin.

The Parliament of South Ossetia must set a new date for the presidential elections by July 6. Marat Kambolov, appointed as acting president, is an outsider for the republic: he was sent to South Ossetia to take the post of prime minister. Now, Kambolov is expected to participate in the presidential race as the favorite of Moscow, analysts interviewed by "Caucasian Knot" indicated.

The sharp and urgent change of power in South Ossetia in a "manual" mode was perceived in the republic as a result of extreme dissatisfaction in Moscow with Gagloev and preparation for the annexation of South Ossetia to the Russian Federation. Journalist Ruslan Totrov does not share this view, pointing to other factors.

"There is a great temptation to consider Kambolov, close to figures in Putin's inner circle, as a sign that the annexation process is now underway. Yes, the inputs tempt and favor this scenario. But it is also important to remember that the current geopolitical situation around Russia leaves Georgia as almost the last semi-ally of Russia in the South Caucasus. Such an 'anschluss' of South Ossetia would forever deprive Russia of this alliance. No matter how strange it sounds, in this situation, Georgia's role as an ally is significant enough for official Moscow to simply support the status quo," he believes.

Totrov suggested that the motives for the change of power in the republic are much simpler: "Russia is simply tired of watching the embezzlement of funds."

"Russia, which has been forming over 80% of South Ossetia's budget for many years, is simply tired of the completely barbaric and ineffective spending of funds, and decided to send its own advisor to Tskhinval, without even trying to portray the subjectivity of South Ossetia. This option is also not excluded," he told a correspondent of "Caucasian Knot."

A local expert, wishing to remain unnamed, also considers the corruption problem a key component of the decision to change power.

"Moscow has been observing the degradation of political and social institutions in South Ossetia for quite a long time, their intertwining with crime. It cannot be said that this overly worried Moscow, but in a situation where it lost Armenia, it simply did not want to burden itself with South Ossetia, which is captured by criminality. Therefore, the decision was made to change power in South Ossetia. Moreover, Russia could no longer turn a blind eye to the degree of inefficiency in spending money. In Moscow, for example, less money is spent per resident than is spent on one resident of South Ossetia," he said.

Moscow's dissatisfaction reached such a level that Gagloev was not allowed to serve out his term, believes blogger Soslan Dzhussoev. In his opinion, at some level in Moscow, it was decided that if everything was left as it is for even a year, "the republic might simply not survive."

"This is a result of dissatisfaction with the processes happening here – and I would not separate the economy, politics, or social issues; it is a general dissatisfaction with everything. There has been no development in any area, I would say, for the last 10 years. The main visible sign of all this is the outflow of the population. If there had been any development, people would not be leaving. After all, they mainly leave for Vladikavkaz. And life in Vladikavkaz is also not the easiest, but they still go there," Dzhussoev said.

None of the analysts interviewed by "Caucasian Knot" considers the issue of South Ossetia's accession to be the goal of the ongoing processes.

"Yes, Moscow is interested in mutual integration of North and South Ossetia, but it is not interested, at least under current conditions, in the annexation of South Ossetia. A huge flow of sanctioned imports goes through Georgia; why would they want to spoil relations with Georgia?" explained an expert who wished to remain anonymous.

The main outcome of Alan Gagloev's time in power is the overthrow of former president Anatoly Bibilov as a result of protest voting, emphasizes Ruslan Totrov.

"I have repeatedly said and will say again that he (Alan Gagloev) is an uninteresting, unoriginal, and uninitiated political figure. These characteristics, in Gagloev's case, allowed South Ossetia not to become a testing ground for some truly mega-dreadful experiments. I cannot imagine what would have happened if Anatoly Bibilov had remained president. As it is, Gagloev did nothing, allowed everything that could be allowed, and did not leave any memorable legacy," Totrov believes.

All respondents recognize the outflow of the population as another indisputable result of President Gagloev. This process made it almost impossible for Moscow to find candidates in the republic to support as presidential candidates: Moscow would like to choose from locals, but there is no one to choose from, so it had to resort to inviting personnel from outside.

"With such an outflow of the population, those who leave are usually competent individuals who easily find themselves in the private sector or in public administration in Russia. With the coming to power of Bibilov, and then Gagloev, the outflow of professionals from South Ossetia only accelerated. There are people, young people, who could be used as a personnel reserve. But Moscow does not see people under 60 years old. For them, a person under 60 is a young and inexperienced person. The disease of aging personnel, which has struck Russia, is spreading to South Ossetia as well. Therefore, they choose old, seasoned pilots," said a local expert on condition of anonymity.

History shows that open support from Moscow for one of the candidates is quite a risky tactic, Totrov reminded.

"Elections in South Ossetia, however strange it may sound, are still a much cleaner experiment from a legal point of view than in Russia. Here, it is extremely difficult to falsify anything. Therefore, a Moscow appointee, even receiving pats on the back from the president of the Russian Federation, nevertheless tends to lose these elections. So I would not say that Marat Kambolov is already guaranteed to be president," said the journalist.

In Totrov's opinion, Moscow will solve this problem by preventing any serious opponents from entering the elections: against Kambolov, they will put up such technical candidates that "even the somewhat unpredictable electoral activity of South Ossetia will be tamed and understood."

Soslan Dzhussoev pointed out how exactly Alan Gagloev decided to leave his post.

"In my opinion, 99% of the population is glad that he is leaving, but the way he is leaving is, of course, a blow to the prestige of the republic. This is also his fault, as he allowed the situation to come to this. We are a state, and he was elected by the people, and to leave like this is the end of ends and the result of results. All this is very sad," he concluded.

The most likely date for the presidential elections is September 21, exactly 90 days from the day of the president's resignation, as stipulated by law. Although this is a Monday, the latest amendments to the electoral legislation allow the election day to be set on any weekend, including holidays. Previously, the law limited these days to only Saturday or Sunday.

Georgia considers Abkhazia and South Ossetia to be territories occupied by Russia after Russia intervened in the armed conflict between Georgia and South Ossetia on August 8, 2008, and then recognized the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The Parliament of Georgia voted to sever diplomatic relations with Russia, according to a report by "Caucasian Knot" on the "Five-Day War" of 2008, which also contains details of this armed conflict.

Source: https://www.kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/424516