Pashinyan's rivals' campaign calls into question the peace agenda

The issue of Karabakh and the border with Azerbaijan has become one of the most pressing issues of the election campaign in Armenia. In the fight for votes, this issue has ceased to be part of the foreign policy agenda and is now being discussed in the context of internal security and the survival of the state.

As reported by the "Caucasian Knot," Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, during the May 30 election campaign, stated that the end of Nagorno-Karabakh was inevitable. Pashinyan's opponents, in turn, blamed him for making concessions in the negotiations with Azerbaijan.

A "Caucasian Knot" correspondent examined how the Karabakh issue is addressed in the election platforms of the four main participants in the election campaign.

Pashinyan Calls for Farewell to the "Myth"

Nikol Pashinyan's "Civil Contract" campaign is based on a break with the historical past: he calls the movement for the unification of Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia the "Karabakh myth," and the Karabakh issue itself a "trap."

Pashinyan actively promotes the thesis that Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh's self-designation) has been used for decades as an instrument of external influence on Armenia, limiting the country's sovereignty. His position is that "closing" the Karabakh issue is a necessary sacrifice for Armenia to develop as an independent state, not a satellite.

"The Karabakh movement was a trap. Foreign states used this issue to keep Armenia dependent on them. The people of Karabakh didn't live, but were held hostage by the Kocharyan-Serzhev clan so that they could use Karabakh as a pretext to maintain power in Armenia. The people of Karabakh will now live, and they will live in Armenia, where they will have a home, peace, work, and social security." "We lost Karabakh from the start, we were already losing Armenia, and when I realized this, my task was to hold on to Armenia and develop it as a state," he said during an election campaign in Yerevan on May 12. Regarding the border with Azerbaijan, Pashinyan appeals to the Alma-Ata Declaration and the Prague Accords, insisting on restoring Soviet borders. His key argument—the renunciation of territorial claims against Azerbaijan—is the foundation of his "Era of Peace" program. He presents this as the only possible way to avoid a new full-scale war, confronting voters with a choice: "my program or a new war in the fall," calling his three main opponents a "three-headed war party."

"If we don't win, their policies will lead to war this fall," Pashinyan warned his voters on May 20.

Kocharyan campaigns for the return of Armenians to Karabakh

The "Armenia" bloc of second President Robert Kocharyan emphasizes the right of Karabakh residents to return to their homes and the restoration of their agency in the negotiations. He criticizes the current government for its "defeatist mentality" and its refusal to use diplomatic leverage against Baku.

Unlike Pashinyan, Kocharyan insists that the Armenian population of Artsakh has a legal right to return, and this right should not be denied by the Armenian authorities. He views this as a fundamental legal instrument, and refusing to use it would be a strategic mistake.

"Is this realistic at this point or not? Perhaps, at this very moment, it's unrealistic. But we must talk about guaranteed, safe return, and this is absolutely realistic in the future. The right of the indigenous population to return is based on international norms and decisions of international bodies," he said on May 20 at a meeting with his supporters in Syunik Oblast.

Kocharyan emphasizes that delimitation, under Azerbaijan's dictate and the absence of international guarantees, leads to the loss of strategic heights and lines of communication. His criticism focuses on the lack of strict demands on Azerbaijan regarding the de-occupation of Armenian territories captured during the 2021-2022 clashes.

"We need an international and influential mediator who can guarantee peace and the de-occupation of Armenia's sovereign territories," he said in Goris.

Karapetyan Speculates on the Azerbaijani Threat

The "Strong Armenia" program of Russian billionaire of Armenian descent Samvel Karapetyan emphasizes pragmatism, border security, and strict national protectionism.

The central point of his program is the "Anti-Safarov Law," which will prohibit Azerbaijani citizens from purchasing real estate in Armenia. According to him, this will eliminate demographic and military pressure from Baku. A ban on property ownership for Azerbaijani citizens is his main response to Aliyev's rhetoric about "the return of Azerbaijanis to their historical lands."

Karapetyan criticizes the authorities for unfounded concessions, claiming that Pashinyan fulfilled every one of Aliyev's demands step by step. "If Pashinyan wins, he will fulfill Aliyev's demand and allow 300,000 Azerbaijanis to resettle in Armenia. He always fulfills all the demands of the Azerbaijani president," he said at a meeting with journalists in Yerevan on May 13.

He proposes a security model in which the border is protected not by diplomatic assurances, but by a modern, multi-layered air defense system, drones, and a high level of technical readiness. "Our main and only ally, Russia, will help us in this matter, with whom we will restore good and fraternal relations in a very short time," Karapetyan promises.

During meetings, representatives of "Strong Armenia" do not rule out the possibility of the Artsakh people returning to their homes. "If Armenia is strong, this issue will find a solution," they promise.

Tsarukyan Promotes Russian Mediation

Armenian oligarch Gagik Tsarukyan's "Prosperous Armenia" party questions the sincerity of the government's peace agenda. His rhetoric focuses on the idea that Armenia is one step away from repeating the Karabakh scenario. Tsarukyan's main demand is to present a signed and officially certified peace treaty. If such a document is not available, he declares the government's entire foreign policy a lie.

"Pashinyan says peace has been established." "Can he show us all a document signed by Baku, which agrees that there are no claims against Armenia and that peace has been established? Such a document does not exist. Therefore, peace is in question," he said at a meeting with voters in Gyumri on May 15.

He also maintains the position that peace with Azerbaijan is impossible without a strong and influential mediator. "We need a mediator, and that can only be Russia," he asserts. The issue of the return of Armenians to Karabakh can also be resolved at the negotiating table with the help of a strong mediator.

Analysts assess the similarities and differences between the Karabakh programs

Political scientist Karen Bekeryan believes that the Civil Contract party is actively exploiting voters' fears. "And it contrasts its peace program with the chaos and war that, according to Pashinyan, his opponents will bring to power. This approach creates severe polarization, making compromise between the old and new schools of political thought impossible. At the same time, Kocharyan's "Armenia" bloc is trying to unite the protest electorate by focusing on professionalism and a return to coercive diplomacy, which resonates with those who see the country's current borders as "open" to pressure from Baku," he told the "Caucasian Knot."

According to him, Tsarukyan and Karapetyan are making grandiose promises to attract the attention of the electorate.

"On the other hand, Karapetyan's "Strong Armenia" and Tsarukyan's "Prosperous Armenia" offer voters sweeping but concrete solutions: from a property ban for Azerbaijani citizens to loan write-offs and guarantees of a "strong mediator." While for Karapetyan, security primarily means a powerful air defense system and economic sovereignty, for Tsarukyan it is a social contract, in which foreign policy must bring stability, confirmed by international seals and signatures. Their rhetoric is aimed at those tired of uncertainty and expecting concrete guarantees of security and prosperity from the state, not ideological directives. Both openly state that if they win, relations with Russia will come first," the political scientist explained. Political scientist and former parliament member Samvel Nikoyan believes the opposition's platforms are broadly similar. "Samvel Karapetyan is shifting the discussion to the protection of national interests, proposing strict legislative measures to prevent Azerbaijan's demographic influence in border areas. This issue is currently of concern to many, so they are focusing on it. His approach is based on the idea of ​​a "technological world" and strengthening defense capability through military modernization, while he directly emphasizes the need to restore the strategic alliance with Russia as the main guarantor of security. Gagik Tsarukyan is taking a sober, critical stance, demanding not abstract promises but clear, signed documents, certified by influential intermediaries. For Tsarukyan, any peace without documentary guarantees, preferably from Russia, is more a myth than a reality," he told the Caucasian Knot. According to him, these two opposition forces, along with Robert Kocharyan, could pose a challenge to Pashinyan. "If they all unite and present a common front, they could create serious problems for Pashinyan. Especially since they all have roughly the same programs and an openly pro-Russian stance. But none of them can compete with him alone," he noted. Ruben Babayan, a member of the Public Council of Armenia, considers Pashinyan's program pragmatic. "Pashinyan and his 'Civil Contract' propose a radical break with the past, arguing for the need to save Armenian statehood from external threats. His 'Era of Peace' strategy is based on cold pragmatism and the renunciation of grievances, which is the only way to prevent further escalation and establish the peace that most Armenians desire," he told the Caucasian Knot.

According to him, the opposition understands it is losing and is therefore taking risks. "They demand the return of Armenians to Karabakh, but they are not offering a step-by-step plan for realizing this promise. Many Armenians in Karabakh sincerely believe this is possible. Their rhetoric toward Azerbaijan is quite aggressive, and this is a big risk, because if they win, it will be difficult to maintain the peace that has effectively been established between the two countries today," he noted.