Armenian analysts assessed the election promises of political forces

THIS MATERIAL (INFORMATION) WAS PRODUCED AND DISTRIBUTED BY THE FOREIGN AGENT MEMO LLC, OR CONCERNING THE ACTIVITIES OF THE FOREIGN AGENT MEMO LLC.

The promises of the four main political forces participating in the parliamentary elections in Armenia focused on reducing poverty, creating new jobs, increasing pensions, and increasing GDP. Analysts believe most of these promises are simply populist.

As reported by the "Caucasian Knot," the elections to the National Assembly of Armenia will be held on June 7. According to analysts, the parties of Karapetyan, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, and former President Robert Kocharyan will be key competitors in the elections.

Three weeks remain until the parliamentary elections in Armenia, which will take place on June 7. The election campaign, which began on May 8, is becoming more intense with each passing day, and the promises made by politicians seem impossible to fulfill. A Caucasian Knot correspondent examined the main points of the leading political forces' election platforms and highlighted the promises they are making to their voters. Some parties' platforms include targets that are difficult to achieve even for the most developed countries.

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's Civil Contract party promises to reduce poverty by 5% within five years and create at least 25,000 new jobs annually. Compared to its promises made in the run-up to the 2021 parliamentary elections, Pashinyan's team is making more modest promises.

During its five years in power, Pashinyan's government has failed to fully implement key promises to reduce poverty and unemployment. Despite plans to halve the poverty rate in 2021, according to official statistics, it has only decreased from 26.5% to 21.7%. The problem of extreme poverty also remains acute: more than 30,000 people in the country are unable to afford sufficient food. The unemployment rate, which the authorities promised to reduce below 10%, currently stands at 12.8%, according to the latest data. Having drawn these conclusions, Pashinyan and his team have decided this time to promise what is achievable within five years of his rule. The "Strong Armenia" bloc, led by Russian billionaire of Armenian descent Samvel Karapetyan, declares its intention to completely eradicate poverty among public sector workers and families with children. Representatives of the bloc claim they are capable of achieving this goal, and the bloc's leader himself calls it a "matter of honor," declaring the presence of a professional team and clear plans for achieving rapid results. "I am confident that by working 24 hours a day, we can create a country without any poor people in a very short time," Samvel Karapetyan said during a meeting with his allies on May 8.

Furthermore, Karapetyan's key promise is to create 300,000 jobs within five years. To achieve this, they plan to open several large factories in every city in Armenia.

The Prosperous Armenia Party, led by Gagik Tsarukyan, is betting on pension increases, promising to align the minimum pension with the minimum consumer basket, which requires increasing payments by at least 60%. However, specific sources of funding are not specified in the program.

In the economic sphere, the party makes an unprecedented promise to triple Armenia's GDP in five years. Tsarukyan also declares his readiness to create 35,000-45,000 jobs per year, expressing confidence that his personal connections will attract investment from major global powers—the United States, Russia, and China.

The promises of the Armenia bloc, led by second president Robert Kocharyan, appear more measured. The bloc plans to increase pensions by 50% and subsequently index them, halve unemployment, and compensate gas and electricity bills for single pensioners during the winter months. Kocharyan appeals to his experience as president, claiming that he has always kept his promises. However, statistics show that, for example, plans to create 30,000 to 40,000 jobs, announced in 2003, had not been realized by the end of his second term.

Analysts Assess Election Promises

Economist Vilen Mnatsakanyan, political scientist Garik Ambaryan, and political scientist Edgar Arakelyan commented on the election promises of parties and blocs to a "Caucasian Knot" correspondent on May 18.

Vilen Mnatsakanyan called the Civil Contract's promises populism. "The 2026 election programs are classic populism. In this case, it's Armenian populism. "The Civil Contract" modestly promises something that is already partially happening thanks to economic growth and migration effects, but a 5% reduction in poverty is a drop in the ocean when extreme poverty persists," he said.

Kocharyan is more reserved, but his bloc also doesn't offer a breakthrough model.

The promises of other parties are also calculated to appeal to voters' emotions, he believes. "Karapetyan, with his 300,000 seats and 'poverty eradication,' is playing on the emotions of the diaspora and businesses, but without radical institutional reforms, this will remain the rhetoric of a wealthy sponsor. Tsarukyan, with his tripling of GDP, has completely overstepped the bounds of realism—even post-war Europe hasn't seen such rates. "Kocharyan is more reserved, but his bloc doesn't offer a breakthrough model either," he noted.

Garik Ambaryan considers all the promises to be campaign marketing. "Pashinyan lowered the bar by acknowledging past failures. This is more honest, but not ambitious enough for a country in need of a breakthrough. The promises of Karapetyan and Tsarukyan are typical 'business populism': factories, pensions, hundreds of thousands of jobs. But where are the sources?" "If you're counting on personal connections and 'working 24/7,' then these are obviously unrealistic promises," he said.

Those who talk about concrete mechanisms, not miracles, can be taken seriously.

According to him, the reality of the Armenian economy is modest growth of 4-6% per year, structural problems, and a demographic crisis. "Kocharyan appears more responsible because he doesn't make such grandiose promises. But even here, there are no clear steps or mechanisms for implementing the program. And those who talk about concrete mechanisms, not miracles, can be taken seriously. The rest is election marketing," he noted.

These promises are more political than economic, says Edgar Arakelyan. "The government is being modest, while the opposition is making generous advances, understanding the people's pain after the loss of Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh). Completely eradicating poverty among civil servants and families with children or tripling the GDP are fine slogans for rallies, but without judicial reform, the fight against corruption, and a balanced foreign policy, they are doomed. Kocharyan is appealing to experience—it's his trump card, although the statistics from the 2000s aren't perfect either. Right now, Pashinyan's promise of moderate progress seems most realistic. It's time for voters to evaluate not promises, but the likelihood of their fulfillment," he said.

The Kremlin is banking on Karapetyan, but by law, he cannot run in the elections, Armenian political scientists previously noted. Samvel Karapetyan, according to Armenian law, cannot become head of government because he holds Russian and Cypriot passports.

Recall that there are numerous allegations of pressure on voters who intend to vote against the ruling party, stated former Armenian Ombudsman and leader of the Wings of Unity party, Arman Tatoyan. Representatives of the Civil Contract party refused to admit that officials had gathered teachers and students for the rally in Aparan.