Alexey Gunya: Dagestan is facing a new climate reality.
Human economic activity has changed the climate and precipitation patterns, and existing infrastructure is inoperable under the new conditions, said Alexey Gunya, head of the Mountain Research Center at the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences, commenting on the flooding in Dagestan.
As reported by the "Caucasian Knot," Dagestani analysts interviewed by the "Caucasian Knot" named ill-considered development, natural factors, and the deplorable state of hydraulic structures among the causes of the devastating flooding. They also unanimously considered the contribution of volunteers to the flood relief effort to be significant. Residents of Makhachkala share the opinion that chaotic development, particularly in the villages of Gazoraspredelitel and Palmyra, has seriously exacerbated the flooding problem.
The Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences has linked regular flooding in Dagestan to a combination of natural processes and anthropogenic impacts, which exacerbate the scale of natural disasters and increase the risks to people. In particular, development on river floodplains, deforestation, and the neglect of water protection zones "literally multiply the consequences" of flooding, which under other conditions might have been relatively calm, noted Doctor of Geographical Sciences Alexey Gunya.
The anthropogenic factor plays a crucial role in the critical flood situation in Dagestan, confirmed the head of the Mountain Research Center at the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Geographical Sciences, Professor Alexey Gunya. "There has been an increase in economic activity, anthropogenic activity: it has expanded, penetrating into various areas where it hadn't previously penetrated. Cities and roads are being built there, and the need for water management has arisen," he explained to the Caucasian Knot.
The effects of large-scale human activity have been compounded by climate change, which is why, in particular, such sharp and destructive floods were not observed in previous years. "The rhythm of the climate itself has changed: for example, in Makhachkala, there used to be 120-130 days with rain per year. Now there are half as many rainy days, but the rains have become more frequent. While the absolute amount of precipitation has remained the same, it has begun to fall quickly and in short periods of time. Human society turned out to be unprepared for this rhythm and hasn't had time to adapt: infrastructure, storm drains, and everything else were adapted to the old rhythm. And this adaptation mechanism is still slow, as all the old infrastructure is not adapted to the new climate reality," explained Alexey Gunya.
The absolute amount of precipitation has remained the same, but it has begun to fall quickly and in short periods of time.
To adapt to the new conditions, infrastructure modernization is necessary, the specialist emphasized. "This means we need new hydraulic systems for drainage, storm drains, dams, and so on. But most importantly, we need to take a fresh look at planning, resettlement, and the placement of economic facilities, roads, and so on. There must be new GOSTs and other standards," Gunya pointed out.
He noted that virtually all dams and embankments adjacent to mountainous areas are in dire need of modernization. "Not just the Gejukha Dam, but all of them, could become unusable any day now, posing a risk of flooding," the doctor of geographical sciences remarked.
On April 6, the Gejukh Dam collapsed in the Derbent District of Dagestan. More than 350 residents from the village of Mamedkala and surrounding villages were evacuated. The flood swept several cars off the highway, killing at least four people. On April 10, an engineer from a commercial organization who was tasked with monitoring the safe operation of the dam was detained. Later, the former director of the company that maintained the dam was also detained.
Gunya added that approaches to floodplain development also need to be changed. "Development of floodplains previously occurred under conditions where the rhythm of natural processes, precipitation, and melting was, so to speak, more or less predictable based on past observations, but now we need to change. Global experience shows that floodplains have at least a yellow hazard zone. In these areas, the permanent placement of economic facilities and permanent residence should be sharply restricted," Gunya emphasized.
He also recalled that floodplain development occurred under conditions where monitoring, control, and sanctions systems were ineffective.
"I'm not insisting that all floodplain properties and residents should be resettled or relocated—each specific case requires its own approach, its own engineering solution. However, the construction of new hydraulic structures should be organized based on the flow rate and the flood peak. This requires constant monitoring and observation of hydrological processes, which is practically nonexistent today. We need to professionally measure the flow, forecast its distribution, and implement a redistribution system, not just by eye," concluded Alexey Gunya.