Analysts in Baku explained the reasons for lifting restrictions on cargo transportation from Iran.
The suspension of transport between Azerbaijan and Iran did not have any consequences due to its short duration; the lifting of travel restrictions stems from Baku's reluctance to escalate the conflict with its neighbor.
Overall, Iran is more interested in trade with Azerbaijan, while Russia benefits from transit, Baku analysts noted.
As "Caucasian Knot" reported, four people were injured in a drone attack on the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic on March 5. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev called the attack "a deliberate terrorist act by Iran." On March 8, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian assured Ilham Aliyev that Iran had nothing to do with the UAV attack on Nakhchivan. Following this, Azerbaijani authorities lifted restrictions on cargo transportation across the border with Iran, imposed on the day of the drone attack on Nakhchivan.
The drone attack was most likely intentional, but Azerbaijan will initially limit itself to diplomatic and political measures, avoiding direct military escalation, analysts in Baku suggested.
The suspension of truck traffic between Azerbaijan and Iran was short-lived and therefore is unlikely to have a significant impact on bilateral trade relations, Natig Jafarli, co-founder of the Respublika Research Center and head of the political committee of the Republican Alternative party, told a Caucasian Knot correspondent.
According to him, the three-day shutdown caused a certain amount of truck congestion at the border, but freight traffic has now resumed as usual. In his opinion, Azerbaijan's opening of the border to trucks was driven more by political factors than economic ones. Iran's share of Azerbaijan's trade turnover is less than 2.5 percent. Moreover, over 95 percent of imports come from Iran, primarily agricultural products and construction materials. All of these goods are produced in Azerbaijan and imported from other countries. Halting imports from Iran to Azerbaijani markets would not cause shortages or a sharp price increase, the expert believes.
"Goods from Iran, whether food products or construction materials, create price competition, and if they are absent for a long period, a certain increase in inflation is possible. However, this will not significantly affect the Azerbaijani economy on a national scale. The arrears in customs and tax collection would be more than covered by a sharp jump in oil prices. Iranian producers would lose more from the suspension of trade," Jafarli said.
Iranian diplomacy has used all means to reopen the road.
In his opinion, stopping freight transport for a long time would cause greater damage to Iran's interests and Russia, for whom Azerbaijan is a transit country. The most efficient route of the International North-South Transport Corridor passes through Azerbaijan; it is short and logistically convenient. The sea route through the Caspian Sea is limited, requiring cargo to be transshipped from one mode of transport to another. The route through Central Asia is much longer, the analyst noted. According to Jafarli, the northern route is critically important for Iran in international trade amid military action in the Strait of Hormuz. "Therefore, Iranian diplomacy has used every means to open the route. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian personally called Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. After Pezeshkian was elected president, tensions in bilateral relations were eased, and they were, one might say, reset. Pezeshkian visited Azerbaijan several times, and mutual trust was established between the heads of state. Moreover, an important factor is that Pezeshkian is an ethnic Azerbaijani and, to a certain extent, is their voice, and this is respected in Baku. Iran never publicly apologizes or admits its guilt. But in this case, in a private conversation, Pezeshkian certainly expressed deep regret for the attack on the NAR. He probably provided assurances that it would not happen again. True, in Iran, the security forces currently play a key role in decision-making. But, apparently, Pezeshkian was authorized to convey their promises as well. On the other hand, Iranian diplomacy likely also involved Moscow, which also stands to lose from the suspension of the corridor. Apparently, Baku also received requests from Russia. It can be assumed that the subsequent call to Aliyev from Vladimir Putin on March 11 was intended to express gratitude not only for assistance in the evacuation of Russian citizens from Iran, but also for the opening of the route. "It's noteworthy that Russia sent humanitarian aid to Iran after the route opened," Jafarli continued.
When asked to what extent the military actions in Iran have impacted cargo shipments from that country to Azerbaijan and bilateral trade, Jafarli replied that official statistics for March will only be known in the second half of April. However, according to him, the supply of Iranian goods in Azerbaijani retail chains has not decreased. At least, Iranian products—dried fruits, nuts, and other food products—are visually available in the country's markets.
The expert found it difficult to assess the impact of the war in Iran on that country's trade with Russia through Azerbaijan and the range of goods transported, citing the lack of official statistics on this issue in Azerbaijan.
However, according to him, the total volume of freight traffic along the western route of the International North-South Transport Corridor in 2025 amounted to approximately 7-8 million tons of cargo, transshipped by road and rail (from the Iranian-Azerbaijani border at Astara in the direction of Russia).
At the same time, the analyst pointed to reports in the Russian media that some exporters in Russia have suspended shipments of goods along the North-South route to Iran due to the war in that country.
Sources in the forestry industry reported that deliveries to Iran have been suspended since February 28. A source at a chemical company noted that deliveries are significantly hampered by the current situation in the Middle East. Only those goods that were sent before the armed conflict or in the first days after its outbreak continue to be delivered, Vedomosti reported on March 11.
Azerbaijani parliament member and economist Vugar Bayramov noted that in 2025, trade turnover between Iran and Azerbaijan amounted to $644 million, of which $624 million came from imports from Iran. Azerbaijan's exports amounted to $20 million, equivalent to three percent of total trade turnover.
It is premature to discuss the economic consequences of the military action.
Of course, prolonged instability could limit Iran's export capacity and create difficulties with the supply of certain goods. However, he noted that if imports from Iran are reduced, their impact on Azerbaijan's overall consumer market balance will be limited. Iran's share of Azerbaijan's foreign trade turnover is only 1.3%. In 2025, Iran accounted for only 2.6% of the country's total imports, Bayramov noted.
Iranian exports to Azerbaijan dominate the structure of bilateral trade.
“In general, Azerbaijan has maintained a negative balance in trade with Iran in recent years. Iran benefits more from bilateral trade relations. Therefore, if technical difficulties arise in trade with Iran, this will not have a significant impact on Azerbaijani exports. Statistical analysis shows that Iranian exports to Azerbaijan dominate the structure of bilateral trade. Iran's share in Azerbaijan's total exports does not reach significant figures, that is, it is at the level of several percent. As is known, exports bring foreign currency to the country, while imports lead to its outflow,” the MP noted, emphasizing the insignificance of the expected losses to the Azerbaijani economy in the event of a decrease in trade volumes.
Another academic economist pointed out the insignificance of Iran's share of Azerbaijan's exports.
“If economic relations are interrupted, Azerbaijan will lose little; our exports to Iran amount to $20 million. Iran ranks 9th in terms of imports. However, a whole range of food products are imported from Iran – oranges, potatoes, edible and iodized salt, eggplants, butter, cookies, peppers, dates, carrots, cabbage, cheese, and other food products. For some products, the role of Iranian imports is quite significant. For example, Iran provides 27% of the butter market and 85% of the dates. Of course, these products can be substituted from other sources. However, Iranian goods are low-priced, and their absence could lead to higher prices on the food market. This will hit the poor," the economist said.
Azerbaijan apparently also backed down from its maximalist demands and did not demand a public apology, given that further escalation could pose new security risks.
However, in his opinion, political factors played a key role in lifting the restrictions on cargo transportation.
"This ban has severely damaged Iran's economic interests, and it has lost a profitable transport link with Russia. Therefore, the Iranians have backed down. Azerbaijan also apparently backed away from its maximalist demands and did not demand a public apology, given that further escalation could have created new security risks for the country. The Iranians could also have presented evidence that the strikes on the NAR were not intentional or even launched from Iranian territory. For example, Iranian proxies in Iraq, which are now effectively operating autonomously, could have done the same. President Masoud Pezeshkian's call may have softened Baku's position, and Azerbaijan abandoned further confrontation," the economist said.