2015 outcomes: aggravation in Nagorno-Karabakh, crisis in Abkhazia and South Ossetia's integration into Russia

The year 2015 was more prosperous for Abkhazia than for South Ossetia; the reason being in the economic crisis in Russia. South Ossetia is discussing the topic of becoming a part of Russia, but contradictions within the elite are hampering the process. In Nagorno-Karabakh, we see a re-escalation of the conflict, of which at least the humanitarian component could be solved. This is how experts have outlined to the "Caucasian Knot" their vision of the main outcomes of the year for the above partially recognized republics.

By 2016, the leaderships of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, especially of the latter, have, in fact, integrated into the Russian vertical of power, said Varvara Pakhomenko, an expert in conflict resolution in Southern and Northern Caucasus and an analyst with the International Crisis Group (ICG).

In her opinion, Russian authorities are applying to Abkhazia and South Ossetia their experience with Chechnya: loyalty of elites to the Kremlin in exchange for financing and personal guarantees.

The analysts pointed out that for Abkhazia last year was better in economic terms than for South Ossetia. According to her version, the crisis in Russia and the ban for power agents on travels abroad have, to some extent, contributed to boosting the Abkhazian economy.

Ms Pakhomenko has noted negative consequences for Abkhazia of the Russian-Turkish crisis, since Turkey is Abkhazia's second trade partner after Russia.

Professor Alla Yazkova, Doctor of History and the Head of the Division of the Black Sea and Mediterranean Studies of the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences (PAS), believes that Russia would like to increasingly infiltrate into Abkhazia.

In South Ossetia, in contrast to Abkhazia, the idea of joining Russia is very popular, said Pakhomenko, explaining that "this is due to the hopes that being a part of Russia, South Ossetia will receive full guarantees of safety, increase the quality of life, and the work of law enforcement bodies and the judicial system."

Among ordinary people, the issue of entering Russia is treated controversially, said Ms Yazkova.

She also noted the 2015 aggravation of the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh.

2015 was marked by the growth of threats to the civilian population of pre-border areas, said Uzeyir Jafarov, the head of the NGO "Military Journalists".

Full text of the article is available on the Russian page of 24/7 Internet agency ‘Caucasian Knot’.